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Mesoscale Discussion 1090
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1090
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0516 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...VA/NC TIDEWATER WWD INTO S-CNTRL VA AND CNTRL NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 334...

   VALID 192216Z - 192315Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 334
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...DMGG WIND AND LOCALIZED LARGE HAIL THREATS REMAIN GREATEST
   OVER THE VA/NC TIDEWATER REGION...WHILE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A
   MORE ISOLATED THREAT EXISTS FARTHER W INTO N-CNTRL NC AND S-CNTRL
   VA.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS TWO WELL-DEFINED MULTICELL
   CLUSTERS AND ASSOCIATED DMGG WIND POTENTIAL PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS
   THE VA TIDEWATER AT AROUND 30 KT...AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WITHIN THE
   NEXT HR. MORE ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT EXTENDS SWWD FROM THIS
   AREA...PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG A WEAKLY CONVERGENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   POSITIONED FROM JUST W OF RDU TO 15 E HKY. UNPERTURBED AIR MASS
   REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS FAR SERN VA INTO CNTRL/ERN NC...WHERE SFC
   TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 90S F AND ARE YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF
   2000-3000 J/KG. 

   W-NWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW DECREASES SUBSTANTIALLY S OF THE VA/NC
   BORDER...LIMITING PROSPECTS FOR ORGANIZED TSTM CLUSTERS BEYOND
   BRIEF/INTERMITTENT PULSES. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND THREAT
   MAY STILL ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN THE DEGREE OF WARMING THAT
   HAS OCCURRED AND ASSOCIATED STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 

   STRONG TSTMS ARE ALSO PROGRESSING SWD ACROSS NRN/CNTRL VA...BUT INTO
   A MODIFIED AIR MASS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SFC
   TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 80S F HERE...WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
   IN PLACE /1000-1500 J/KG/ FOR CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
   WIND GUSTS OVER NRN PORTIONS OF WW 334 IN CNTRL VA.

   ..ROGERS.. 06/19/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...

   LAT...LON   36547535 36077562 35997681 35707814 35507921 35768005
               36278011 37077987 37527945 37937839 38007732 37857562
               36547535 

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Page last modified: June 19, 2014
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