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Mesoscale Discussion 1091
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1091
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0707 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE AND WEST TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 335...

   VALID 200007Z - 200130Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 335
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL SHOULD
   CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TX AND THE
   TX PANHANDLE.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SELY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF
   THE SRN PLAINS WITH A POCKET OF HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS LOCATED ACROSS
   SRN PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THIS POCKET WERE IN
   THE MID 60S F WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE
   BY RAP-V2 MESOSCALE ANALYSIS. IN ADDITION...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS AT
   AMARILLO AND LUBBOCK TX SHOW SOME TURNING OF THE WINDS WITH HEIGHT
   BELOW 3 KM WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 30 KT. ALTHOUGH
   THE SHEAR APPEARS MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
   STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE
   STRONGER UPDRAFTS. WIND DAMAGE MAY ALSO OCCUR ESPECIALLY WITH CELL
   MERGERS. ASSUMING NO SUBSTANTIAL UPSCALE GROWTH OCCURS...THE SEVERE
   THREAT SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED LATE THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY
   STARTS TO DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION.

   ..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 06/20/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32710039 33210233 33950285 34750296 35340268 35410188
               34839994 34289935 33189922 32710039 

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Page last modified: June 20, 2014
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