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Mesoscale Discussion 1091
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1091
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1114 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

   Areas affected...Much of central and eastern Maryland/Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 191614Z - 191815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development appears likely during
   the next few hours, and may begin impacting the Baltimore/Washington
   D.C. metropolitan areas by 2-4 PM EDT.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is now underway along and
   southeast of the Allegheny Mountains, as far south as the eastern
   West Virginia panhandle.  This appears to coincide with the
   southeastern periphery of the stronger mid-latitude latitude
   westerlies, which may gradually edge toward the Baltimore/Washington
   D.C. metropolitan areas toward the 18-20Z time frame.  As the
   increasingly weakly capped moist boundary layer continues to
   destabilize with additional insolation, this is expected to result
   in increasing and intensifying thunderstorm development.  In the
   presence of 30-40 kt south to southwesterly mean lower/mid
   tropospheric flow, heavy precipitation loading and downward momentum
   transfer are expected to slowly lead to increasing potential for
   downbursts.  

   Farther to the east and south, into parts of the Carolina piedmont
   and Mid Atlantic coastal plain,  where mid-level heights remain
   fairly high and flow appears a bit weaker, but at least broadly
   cyclonic, a general increase in thunderstorm development and
   intensity appears probable through late afternoon.

   ..Kerr/Hart.. 06/19/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

   LAT...LON   36957987 37517948 39197779 39547720 39577594 38577558
               37067687 36067831 36127965 36957987 

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Page last modified: June 19, 2017
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