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Mesoscale Discussion 1093
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1093
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0847 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN/N-CNTRL NEB...FAR SRN SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 210147Z - 210245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG TO SVR
   WIND GUSTS SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE SHORT-TERM INTO N-CNTRL NEB. A WW
   IS NOT IMMINENT...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE.

   DISCUSSION...A LONG-LIVED DISCRETE SUPERCELL ENTERING SHERIDAN
   COUNTY NEB CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUST
   POTENTIAL AS IT MOVES SEWD. LBF 00Z SOUNDING SAMPLED A STEEP LAPSE
   RATE PROFILE AND 40-50 KT OF MIDLEVEL FLOW...BUT WEAK ELY FLOW IN
   THE LOW-LEVELS. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS
   MARGINAL...CHARACTERIZED BY AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. WITH THE
   IMMINENT LOSS OF DIURNAL HEAT...AND AN UNCLEAR FOCUS FOR TSTM
   PERSISTENCE...IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW LONG-LIVED THE ASSOCIATED SVR
   THREAT WILL PERSIST. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
   STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY EXIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT HR...AND PERHAPS
   LONGER IF ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR...IN WHICH
   CASE A WW MAY BE CONSIDERED.

   ..ROGERS/HART.. 06/21/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

   LAT...LON   41670143 42240271 42860318 43270302 43400239 43020109
               42570030 41740022 41670143 

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Page last modified: June 21, 2015
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