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Mesoscale Discussion 1093
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1093
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1244 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern IA...southern WI...northern
   IL...northern/central IN...southwest Lower MI...western OH

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 191744Z - 192015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Convection crossing parts of the southwest Great Lakes
   region may produce isolated and marginally severe hail/wind this
   afternoon. However, Watch issuance will not be necessary.

   DISCUSSION...The base of a deep trough and accompanying cold
   midlevel temperatures are in place across the region. The 12Z
   sounding at Davenport IA sampled a 500-mb temperature around 
   -17.7C -- highlighting the seasonally anomalously cold air aloft.
   With strong diabatic surface heating owing to insolation, low-level
   lapse rates are steepening, and a southeastward-moving convective
   cluster has developed in south-central WI within the general
   left-exit region of a high-level speed maximum. Additional cumulus
   fields are deepening from parts of central IA and within an arc from
   northern IL to northern Indiana, which may eventually evolve into
   lightning-producing, though somewhat shallow convection. As all of
   this activity spreads southeastward/eastward across the region
   through the afternoon hours, unidirectional wind profiles --
   elongated in the mid/high levels -- may support sustained convective
   cells/clusters. Steep low-to-mid-level lapse rates and relatively
   low freezing-level heights may support isolated severe hail, while
   well-mixed boundary layers and related sub-cloud evaporation
   encourage some risk for isolated damaging wind gusts. However, the
   dearth of tropospheric moisture, and the paucity of buoyancy will
   limit the overall severe risk.

   ..Cohen/Hart.. 06/19/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   40869198 41959237 42718908 42158651 41468528 40718440
               40008427 39578524 40238937 40869198 

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