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Mesoscale Discussion 1093
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1093
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1102 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH ERN NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 201602Z - 201800Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STORMS MAY POSE A NEAR TERM THREAT FOR MAINLY
   LARGE HAIL. WITH TIME...STORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY
   DURING THE AFTERNOON. CNTRL THROUGH ERN NEB INTO WRN IA WILL BE
   INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR THE 1630Z UPDATE. TRENDS ARE BEING
   MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...AS OF LATE MORNING...ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
   ACROSS WCNTRL THROUGH CNTRL NEB WITHIN ZONE OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL WARM
   ADVECTION. THE 12Z RAOB FROM NORTH PLATTE INDICATED WEAK VERTICAL
   SHEAR BUT A WEAK CAP AND A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY /3000
   J/KG/ FOR PARCELS LIFTED FROM NEAR 850 MB. STRONG DIABATIC WARMING
   WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND ONGOING STORMS
   MIGHT EVENTUALLY BECOME SFC BASED AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID
   80S. TREND HAS BEEN FOR LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
   CONFLUENT IN RESPONSE TO A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
   THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. EVEN IF MORNING STORMS WEAKEN...ADDITIONAL
   STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE WEAK TO
   MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PROMOTE
   MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES.

   ..DIAL/GOSS.. 06/20/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...

   LAT...LON   41050141 42199986 42679804 42089697 40949704 40060067
               41050141 

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Page last modified: June 20, 2014
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