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Mesoscale Discussion 1094
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1094
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1157 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND...SRN OH...NRN KY AND WRN WV

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 201657Z - 201900Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
   AFTERNOON OVER THE OH VALLEY REGION. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL POSE A
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL.
   TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

   DISCUSSION...OH VALLEY WARM SECTOR IS DESTABILIZING SOUTH OF A
   QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM WRN VA THROUGH CNTRL OH
   INTO NERN IND AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHERE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
   70F DEWPOINTS RESIDE. THE STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR OVER
   SRN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY WHERE MORE DIABATIC HEATING WILL OCCUR. A
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL ADVANCE EWD...WITH
   FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE GLANCING THE WARM
   SECTOR OVER THE OH VALLEY. GIVEN ONLY WEAK TO NO CAPPING
   PRESENT...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...BECOMING FAIRLY NUMEROUS
   AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTORS ARE MODEST
   FLOW ALOFT WITH 20-30 KT AT 500 MB AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
   THUS SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DRIVEN BY POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG
   TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH CLUSTERS OF MULTICELL STORMS AS
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN.

   ..DIAL/GOSS.. 06/20/2014


   ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...

   LAT...LON   40228417 39538236 38438163 37738238 38288421 38948658
               40078603 40228417 

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Page last modified: June 20, 2014
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