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Mesoscale Discussion 1094
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1094
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0121 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

   Areas affected...Parts of northern Virginia...central/eastern
   Maryland...northern Delaware...southeastern Pennsylvania...northern
   New Jersey and the lower Hudson Valley

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 354...356...

   Valid 191821Z - 192015Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 354, 356
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms accompanied by heavy rain, frequent cloud to
   ground lightning and increasing (potentially damaging) strong wind
   gusts may impact much of the Northeast urban corridor (DC to New
   York) by 3-5 PM EDT.

   DISCUSSION...Continuing insolation has warmed surface temperatures
   to around 90F through much of the urban corridor from Washington
   D.C./Baltimore through Philadelphia and New York City.  This is
   contributing to sizable CAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg, ahead of
   evolving upstream thunderstorm activity which continues to gradually
   organize and intensify.

   Through 20-21Z, a consolidating and strengthening cold pool
   associated with the evolving convective system seems likely to surge
   northeastward and eastward into the urban corridor, accompanied by
   increasingly widespread (and potentially damaging) surface gusts on
   its leading edge.  This may be enhanced as convection encounters
   stronger southerly ambient low-level wind fields, as suggested by
   the latest Rapid Refresh, on the order of 40+ kt.

   ..Kerr.. 06/19/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   38667745 39847634 40317601 40497526 41217440 41547378
               40657383 40077454 39457521 38537622 38107732 38077773
               38667745 

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Page last modified: June 19, 2017
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