|Mesoscale Discussion 1094|
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Mesoscale Discussion 1094
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0121 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017
Areas affected...Parts of northern Virginia...central/eastern
Maryland...northern Delaware...southeastern Pennsylvania...northern
New Jersey and the lower Hudson Valley
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 354...356...
Valid 191821Z - 192015Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 354, 356
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms accompanied by heavy rain, frequent cloud to
ground lightning and increasing (potentially damaging) strong wind
gusts may impact much of the Northeast urban corridor (DC to New
York) by 3-5 PM EDT.
DISCUSSION...Continuing insolation has warmed surface temperatures
to around 90F through much of the urban corridor from Washington
D.C./Baltimore through Philadelphia and New York City. This is
contributing to sizable CAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg, ahead of
evolving upstream thunderstorm activity which continues to gradually
organize and intensify.
Through 20-21Z, a consolidating and strengthening cold pool
associated with the evolving convective system seems likely to surge
northeastward and eastward into the urban corridor, accompanied by
increasingly widespread (and potentially damaging) surface gusts on
its leading edge. This may be enhanced as convection encounters
stronger southerly ambient low-level wind fields, as suggested by
the latest Rapid Refresh, on the order of 40+ kt.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 38667745 39847634 40317601 40497526 41217440 41547378
40657383 40077454 39457521 38537622 38107732 38077773
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