Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1095
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1095 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1095
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0252 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN ND...NRN MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 201952Z - 202145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE MN/ND BORDER IN
   THE NEXT HOUR.  TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
   WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...BOUNDARY-LAYER CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE INCREASING ALONG A
   SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE ND/MN BORDER AHEAD OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
   SPEED MAX ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW IN SRN CANADA. 
   CONSEQUENTLY...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /AROUND 50 KTS PER LATEST
   MESOANALYSIS/ WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS
   ACROSS THE REGION.  THE PRIMARY LIMITATION FOR SEVERE STORM
   DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE LACK OF INSTABILITY WITH A NARROW AXIS OF
   WEAK MLCAPE /AROUND 1000 J/KG/ EXTENDING INTO SERN ND.  WITH THE
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTOR BEING NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE SURFACE
   TROUGH AXIS...DISCRETE STORM MODE /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/ IS EXPECTED
   ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

   ..JIRAK/GOSS.. 06/20/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

   LAT...LON   45999647 46309705 46769708 47439678 48039659 48599593
               48539496 48409471 47999422 47179311 46589296 46219297
               46069300 45919328 45739371 45679436 45799530 45999647 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 20, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities