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Mesoscale Discussion 1095
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1095
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0142 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of ND and western MN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 191842Z - 192115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...There will exist some isolated severe hail/wind potential
   with convection spreading across the area from this afternoon into
   the early evening. Watch issuance is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Convection has exhibited slight intensification within
   a band of midlevel ascent from southeast Saskatchewan to southwest
   Manitoba, preceding a compact vorticity maximum embedded within
   40-50 kt of 500-mb northwesterly flow. Continued diurnal heating of
   a relatively dry boundary layer ahead of this disturbance will
   continue to contribute to marginal instability, with MLCAPE around
   250-500 J/kg though with lacking MLCINH. As such, convection will
   spread into and across the discussion area throughout the afternoon
   and into the evening, and may increase in intensity during the next
   few hours. Moderately strong mid/high-level flow will support ample
   convective ventilation and sufficient deep shear for sustained
   convective cells. Moderately steep midlevel lapse rates may support
   isolated marginally severe hail. Also, as low-level lapse rates
   steepen, the potential for well-mixed/dry low-level profiles to
   support evaporatively cooled downdrafts will exist. Isolated
   marginally severe wind gusts will be possible. While the compact
   nature of the upstream disturbance and related preceding
   upward-motion response will likely support some severe potential,
   the overall dearth of moisture and paucity of buoyancy should render
   overall limited/marginal severe potential.

   ..Cohen/Hart.. 06/19/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

   LAT...LON   46179805 47370080 48850264 49020004 48889768 48399628
               47339540 46259522 46179805 

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Page last modified: June 19, 2017
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