MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1095
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0240 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TX PNHDL INTO THE TX S PLAINS AND NWRN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 131940Z - 132115Z
   
   SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
   WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE
   HAIL...TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.  A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
   PRIOR TO 21Z.
   
   A COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN HAS EVOLVED THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRIMARY
   SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NERN NM /N OF TCC/ ESEWD THROUGH
   THE SERN TX PNHDL ACROSS SRN OK.  FARTHER S...LBB RADAR IMAGERY AS
   OF 1920Z SHOWS A BOUNDARY DELINEATING A NWD SURGE OF WARMER AIR FROM
   ROOSEVELT COUNTY NM THROUGH BAILEY...NWRN LAMB INTO CASTRO COUNTIES
   TX.  ANOTHER WELL-DEFINED BOUNDARY...DELINEATING A WLY SURGE OF
   COOLER AIR EXTENDED SEWD FROM SRN SWISHER COUNTY THROUGH WRN FLOYD
   INTO CNTRL CROSBY COUNTY TX.
   
   3-HR SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE STRONGEST
   BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING AND WARMING IS OCCURRING FROM THE TRANS-PECOS
   REGION THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO THE TX S PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD
   CONTINUE TO BETTER-DEFINE THE DRYLINE E OF A LBB-MAF LINE BY LATE
   AFTERNOON.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GROWING CUMULUS FIELD
   WITHIN THIS HOT...DRYING AIR MASS...SUGGESTING THAT CAP IS BECOMING
   INCREASINGLY WEAK.
   
   EXPECT TSTM DEVELOPMENT TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITHIN THE NEXT
   1-2 HOURS E OF DEVELOPING DRYLINE /LIKELY OVER THE LOW ROLLING
   PLAINS/ WITH STORMS RAPIDLY BECOMING SEVERE GIVEN THE MODERATE TO
   STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG.  CURRENT
   LBB VWP AND JAYTON PROFILER INDICATE 30-35 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WHICH
   WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY. 
   VERY LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
   THOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY MORE INTENSE
   MESOCYCLONES.
   
   ..MEAD.. 06/13/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
   
   LAT...LON   32800102 33390167 34130184 34640201 35000122 34880048
               34560012 33359984 32850018 32800102