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Mesoscale Discussion 1096
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1096
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0324 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN MONTANA/NERN IDAHO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 202024Z - 202130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SWRN MONTANA AND
   NERN IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON.  SMALL HAIL AND OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS
   APPROACHING SEVERE CRITERIA ARE ANTICIPATED.  A WW IS NOT EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING ACROSS WASHINGTON STATE
   TODAY HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NERN IDAHO/SWRN MONTANA. SOUTHWESTERLY
   MID-LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING
   INTO THE 70S HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MODEST INSTABILITY /I.E. 250-500 J
   PER KG OF MLCAPE/.  THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW
   WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF WIND GUSTS APPROACHING SEVERE
   LIMITS /REF. 51 MPH WIND GUST RECENTLY REPORTED IN JEFFERSON CO.
   MONTANA/ ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES.  A
   WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT.

   ..COOK/JIRAK/GOSS.. 06/20/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...PIH...MSO...

   LAT...LON   45451102 46081079 46791139 46981273 46601380 45861431
               45091444 44321413 43941306 44241161 45281085 45451102 

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Page last modified: June 20, 2014
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