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Mesoscale Discussion 1097
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1097
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0105 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD INTO N-CNTRL NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 210605Z - 210730Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL
   AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
   HOURS.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...A NOTABLE INCREASE IN TSTMS HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE
   PAST COUPLE OF HOURS FROM CAMPBELL AND CROOK COUNTIES WY THROUGH THE
   BLACK HILLS TO SHANNON...BENNETT AND TODD COUNTIES IN SWRN AND
   S-CNTRL SD.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND NEAR-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
   SUGGEST THAT PERHAPS A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND
   ASSOCIATED 50-60 KT MID-LEVEL JET MAY BE ACTING IN CONCERT WITH
   LOW-LEVEL WAA /PER RAPID CITY VAD/ TO FORCE THIS ACTIVITY.

   BASED ON CURRENT RAP-BASED OBJECTIVE DATA AND 00Z RAPID CITY AND
   NORTH PLATTE SOUNDINGS...IT APPEARS THAT THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE AT LEAST FOR MOST-UNSTABLE PARCELS.  AND GIVEN
   THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PRESENT...THE SETUP IS SUPPORTIVE OF
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.  THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS THE DURATION OF
   THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY.  ISOLATED
   OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD
   REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH STORMS GRADUALLY
   SPREADING SEWD INTO PARTS OF N-CNTRL NEB.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
   MONITORED FOR THE EVOLUTION OF A MORE ORGANIZED WIND THREAT THAT
   WOULD NECESSITATE A WATCH.

   ..MEAD.. 06/21/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

   LAT...LON   43850465 44360446 44670362 44390211 43810108 43410045
               43139994 42709958 42319965 42059998 41950048 42060115
               42400207 42710287 43010348 43850465 

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Page last modified: June 21, 2015
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