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Mesoscale Discussion 1097
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1097
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0240 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of southwest TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 191940Z - 192215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A very isolated severe risk may accompany thunderstorms
   into the early evening hours, though Watch issuance will not be

   DISCUSSION...An uptick in cumulus fields has been noted in proximity
   to a boundary extending east-northeastward from the TX Trans-Pecos
   region toward areas north of San Angelo. Strong diabatic
   surface-layer heating is supporting erosion of antecedent capping
   aloft, with favorably moist low-level profiles yielding 
   2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE near the boundary. Convergence near the
   boundary -- perhaps aided by the peripheral influence of a decaying,
   though persistent, convective cluster crossing the TX Hill 
   Country -- could support deeper convective development during the
   next few hours, with storms potentially lingering into the early
   evening. Furthermore, orographic ascent over the southwest TX
   mountains could encourage storm formation. Given the aforementioned
   buoyancy, a few intense updrafts capable of producing severe hail
   could evolve. Also, with DCAPE increasing to around 1300-1700 J/kg,
   some isolated severe-wind risk could occur. However, with the region
   being displaced to the west of modestly stronger deep shear,
   convective organization should be greatly lacking, and any severe
   risk should be very isolated.

   ..Cohen/Hart.. 06/19/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   29880461 30140440 31290303 32000137 31940064 31680046
               31430058 30450208 29730343 29480441 29880461 

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