MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1097
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0345 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...TRANS-PECOS THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO TX S
   PLAINS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 132045Z - 132215Z
   
   THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL WILL EXIST
   WITH HIGH-BASED STORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.  A WW IS NOT
   CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
   
   TSTMS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
   AFTERNOON FROM PORTIONS OF JEFF DAVIS AND BREWSTER COUNTIES NEWD
   THROUGH REEVES...PECOS INTO WARD AND CRANE COUNTIES OF SWRN TX AS OF
   2030Z.  THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING WITHIN A HOT...DEEPLY MIXED
   BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS APPROACHING 50 F. 
   THE STRONG INSOLATION ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUPLED WITH THE
   APPROACH OF A LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSE THROUGH THE BIG BEND REGION ARE
   LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THIS STORM DEVELOPMENT WHICH SHOULD
   MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
   INTO EVENING.
   
   RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT AMBIENT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
   IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE STEEP LOW TO
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. 
   MOREOVER...POTENTIAL NEGATIVE BUOYANCY IS ALSO RELATIVELY LARGE WITH
   DCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG.  AS SUCH...THE THREAT WILL EXIST FOR LOCALLY
   DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS GIVEN THE STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL. 
   SOME HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
   
   WHILE A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
   MONITORED FOR THE ORGANIZATION OF STORMS INTO A LARGER COMPLEX. 
   SHOULD THIS OCCUR...THE THREAT FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD WIND EVENT
   WOULD EXIST AND A WW WOULD HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED.
   
   ..MEAD.. 06/13/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...
   
   LAT...LON   30670382 31360378 32160328 32770284 32790213 32480158
               31810150 30620222 30290315 30670382