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| Mesoscale Discussion 1098 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1098
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0507 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN AR INTO CNTRL MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 132207Z - 132300Z
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF TORNADO. GIVEN VERY LARGE INSTABILITY JUXTAPOSED WITH
SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY.
ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHED FROM AROUND 20 N HOT TO 40 W CBM AS OF 22Z.
VERY STRONG INSTABILITY PERSISTS S OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPE AOA
3000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH DEQUEEN AR PROFILER AND AREA VWP DATA DEPICT
MEAGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW...30-35 KT WLYS AROUND 6 KM WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AND SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. UPPER-LEVEL FORCING
APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE WHICH SHOULD KEEP OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
ISOLATED...BUT AID IN MAINTAINING DISCRETE STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL
APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF TORNADO COULD OCCUR GIVEN SOME DEGREE OF ENHANCED
VORTICITY/STRETCHING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
..GRAMS.. 06/13/2009
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...
LAT...LON 33948915 33348908 32928941 32939043 33299185 33839314
34219444 34539473 34849465 35099407 34739208 33948915
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