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Mesoscale Discussion 1098
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1098
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0601 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 337...

   VALID 202301Z - 210030Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 337
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH
   EARLY TO MID EVENING ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN MN. A TORNADO ALONG WITH
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR WITH THE MORE INTENSE
   CELLS IN WW 337.

   DISCUSSION...AT THE SFC...A TROUGH EXTENDS SWD ACROSS FAR ERN ND TO
   NEAR THE SD-MN STATE LINE. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...A TONGUE OF
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LOCATED ACROSS MUCH OF WRN AND CNTRL MN WHERE
   SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S F. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE
   ESTIMATED IN THE 750 TO 1250 J/KG RANGE BY RAP-V2 MESOANALYSIS. IN
   ADDITION...THE MINNEAPOLIS WSR-88D VWP SHOWS A VEERING WIND PROFILE
   WITH HEIGHT BELOW 2 KM WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS EARLY THIS EVENING
   ACROSS CNTRL MN SHOWING 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES IN THE 250
   TO 300 M2/S2 RANGE. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT A TORNADO AND
   LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP AND PERSIST ACROSS
   THE WATCH AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
   ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AS SUBSIDENCE
   INCREASES BEHIND AN EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
   IMAGERY OVER NRN MN.

   ..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 06/20/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

   LAT...LON   45419293 45619434 46029553 46679613 48609599 49119538
               48589268 45419293 

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