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Mesoscale Discussion 1099
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1099
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0705 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL NEB...NWRN KS...FAR NERN CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 336...

   VALID 210005Z - 210130Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 336
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES IN AND NEAR THE WRN
   PART OF WW 336. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE I-80
   CORRIDOR FROM GRI TO LBF...WHERE A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WILL
   CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.

   DISCUSSION...INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE I-80
   CORRIDOR FROM CENTRAL INTO WRN NEB...WITH GOLFBALL-SIZE HAIL
   RECENTLY REPORTED NEAR LBF AND 3-INCH HAIL REPORTED W OF GRI. THESE
   STORMS ARE SITUATED BETWEEN A WEAK WARM FRONT RUNNING FROM N-CNTRL
   NEB INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE AND A SFC TROUGH SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF
   THE I-80 CORRIDOR. THE LATTER FEATURE SEPARATES A HOT...WELL-MIXED
   AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY FROM A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
   AIRMASS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
   RECENT MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPE OF 3000-3500 J/KG ALONG THE
   I-80 CORRIDOR...WITH BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN THIS REGION
   CONTRIBUTING TO EFFECTIVE HELICITY OF 200-300 M2/S2...DESPITE
   GENERALLY WEAK WINDS ALOFT. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HRS BEFORE NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION
   COMMENCES. 

   NORTH OF THE MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY...TCU HAS BEEN NOTED ALONG THE
   WARM FRONT...BUT WITH THE BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SITUATED TO THE
   SOUTH...CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS THUS FAR BEEN SUPPRESSED AND THE
   WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IS CLOSING FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
   MEANWHILE...SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   RELATIVELY HOT AND DRY...CONVECTION HAS NOT BEEN AS WELL-ORGANIZED
   ACROSS NWRN KS...BUT A LOCALIZED THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HRS BEFORE
   BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILIZATION BEGINS IN EARNEST.

   ..DEAN.. 06/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   38980136 39150232 39840322 40670346 41730299 42670149
               42880013 42629894 42399859 41629828 40849817 39929852
               39589944 39210041 39020105 38980136 

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Page last modified: June 21, 2014
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