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Mesoscale Discussion 1099
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1099
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0258 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PART OF NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL MO AND ADJACENT
   WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 210758Z - 211000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ELEVATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DURING THE
   OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST TO EAST-CENTRAL
   MO AND PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST IL.  A MAJORITY OF THE
   STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE...THOUGH ISOLATED HAIL APPROACHING 1
   INCH IN DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ONGOING STORMS MOVING ESEWD
   FROM NORTHEAST MO INTO ADJACENT WRN IL.

   DISCUSSION...MESOANALYSES AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A COMPOSITE
   CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM FAR SRN INDIANA SWWD INTO
   FAR SRN IL INTO SERN MO /SRN PERRY COUNTY/...WITH THIS BOUNDARY THEN
   EXTENDING NWWD THROUGH CENTRAL MO /WEST OF KCOU/ TO THE KANSAS CITY
   METRO.  A WAA REGIME LOCATED ACROSS NRN AND ERN MO WITHIN THE NOSE
   OF A 40-KT WLY LLJ EXTENDING INTO NRN MO FROM KS WILL CONTINUE TO
   MAINTAIN NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM /UNTIL 10-11Z/
   ALONG THE SWRN FLANK OF THE MID MS VALLEY MCS.  THE ERN EXTENT OF
   STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /7-8 C/KM IN THE 700-500-MB LAYER/ AND A
   FEED OF MODERATE INSTABILITY INTO THE SWRN FLANK SUGGEST SUFFICIENT
   BUOYANCY REMAINS FOR NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM NERN MO INTO ADJACENT
   WRN IL OVERNIGHT.  TRENDS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED PERSISTENT
   CLOUD TOP COOLING ACROSS THE SWRN FLANK OF THIS MCS WITH THE GOES-R
   OVERSHOOTING TOP PRODUCT SUGGESTING CONTINUED STRONG UPDRAFTS
   OCCURRING OVER NERN MO /CHARITON TO RALLS COUNTIES MO/.  STRONGEST
   BULK SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER NRN MO...SUCH THAT ANY
   ELEVATED STORM ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE WITH THE ONGOING STORMS...WITH
   LESS ORGANIZATION POSSIBLE AS STORMS MOVE INTO EAST-CENTRAL MO AND
   ADJACENT SOUTHWEST IL BY 11Z.

   ..PETERS/MEAD.. 06/21/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   39719183 39679101 39439051 39209001 39008987 38799044
               38799116 39139227 39579288 39719183 

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Page last modified: June 21, 2015
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