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Mesoscale Discussion 1099
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1099
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1259 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

   Areas affected...Parts of northwestern/central Kansas and adjacent
   southern Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 201759Z - 202000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered rapid severe storm development
   appears possible as early as 19-21Z, with large hail the primary
   initial severe threat.  Strong surface gusts may become an
   increasing concern near storms later this afternoon.  Trends are
   being monitored for the possibility of a severe weather watch.

   DISCUSSION...Surface heating along/west of a corridor of boundary
   layer moisture return across the Liberal/Dodge City areas,
   northeastward through Russell/Hill City, has already contributed to
   strong potential instability.  This is occurring beneath steepening
   mid-level lapse rates associated with the leading edge of elevated
   mixed layer air beginning to return eastward across the high Plains.
    In the presence of generally weak but veering winds with height,
   beneath 30-40 kt northwesterly flow around 500 mb, the environment
   appears conditionally supportive of organized severe storm
   development, including supercells.

   Although the Rapid Refresh suggests that mid-level inhibition is
   weakening with continuing insolation, this probably is being offset,
   at least somewhat, by gradual warming aloft.  Still, large-scale
   ascent associated with lower/mid tropospheric warm advection could
   support the initiation of thunderstorms.  And there appears a
   general consensus among various model output that this may occur as
   early as 19-21Z, roughly centered around the Russell/Hill City area.
   Once initiation of deep convection commences, fairly rapid
   intensification appears possible, accompanied by a risk for severe
   hail, some of which could be very large.

   ..Kerr/Hart.. 06/20/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   40170051 40119928 39879787 39049775 38159854 38039998
               38630073 40170051 

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Page last modified: June 20, 2017
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