Mesoscale Discussion 1100
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017
Areas affected...Parts of southeast Colorado...northeastern New
Mexico and the TX/OK panhandle region
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 201900Z - 202130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Vigorous thunderstorm activity, perhaps including an
isolated supercell or two, may be accompanied by at least some risk
for severe wind and hail late this afternoon. It is not clear that
a watch is needed, but trends will continue to be monitored.
DISCUSSION...Deepening convective development is now evident along
the eastern slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, in response to
daytime heating. This is occurring in the presence of generally
light westerly to northwesterly deep layer mean flow, which will
eventually support a propagation off the higher terrain into an
environment across the adjacent high plains that now appears
characterized by strong potential instability.
Despite the weak wind fields, the latest Rapid Refresh suggests that
veering with height may be contributing to localized vertical shear
at least marginally sufficient for supercell structures, mainly near
and southeast of the Raton Mesa area, where there appears at least
some risk for severe hail. Otherwise, localized strong downbursts
may be the primary threat, with activity becoming rooted in a
strongly heated and deeply mixed boundary layer.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 37110284 36210220 35410312 34660373 34810433 35340509
36420471 37150409 37110284