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Mesoscale Discussion 1100
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1100
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0200 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

   Areas affected...Parts of southeast Colorado...northeastern New
   Mexico and the TX/OK panhandle region

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 201900Z - 202130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Vigorous thunderstorm activity, perhaps including an
   isolated supercell or two, may be accompanied by at least some risk
   for severe wind and hail late this afternoon.  It is not clear that
   a watch is needed, but trends will continue to be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Deepening convective development is now evident along
   the eastern slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, in response to
   daytime heating.  This is occurring in the presence of generally
   light westerly to northwesterly deep layer mean flow, which will
   eventually support a propagation off the higher terrain into an
   environment across the adjacent high plains that now appears
   characterized by strong potential instability.

   Despite the weak wind fields, the latest Rapid Refresh suggests that
   veering with height may be contributing to localized vertical shear
   at least marginally sufficient for supercell structures, mainly near
   and southeast of the Raton Mesa area, where there appears at least
   some risk for severe hail.  Otherwise, localized strong downbursts
   may be the primary threat, with activity becoming rooted in a
   strongly heated and deeply mixed boundary layer.

   ..Kerr/Hart.. 06/20/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37110284 36210220 35410312 34660373 34810433 35340509
               36420471 37150409 37110284 

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