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Mesoscale Discussion 1100
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1100
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0829 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NEB...WRN IA...NRN KS...NWRN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 336...338...

   VALID 210129Z - 210300Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   336...338...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE VALID PORTIONS OF
   WW 336 AND 338. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPSCALE GROWTH THIS
   EVENING...NEW WATCH ISSUANCE IS BEING CONSIDERED ALONG AND SOUTH OF
   THE CURRENT ACTIVITY.

   DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS CURRENTLY EXTEND ACROSS
   MUCH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR FROM WRN IA THROUGH OMA-GRI-LBF. ACTIVITY
   HAS LARGELY BEEN DISCRETE THUS FAR WITH VERY LARGE HAIL NOTED ACROSS
   CNTRL INTO WRN NEB...BUT SOME UPSCALE GROWTH HAS RECENTLY BEEN NOTED
   ACROSS ERN NEB/WRN IA...RESULTING IN A POTENTIALLY ENHANCED RISK OF
   DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS SERN NEB/SWRN IA INTO NERN KS/NWRN MO AS
   CONVECTION DEVELOPS INTO A REGION OF STRONG INSTABILITY
   CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE OF 3000-4000 J/KG...AS NOTED ON 00Z OAX RAOB
   AND RECENT MESOANALYSIS. 

   FURTHER TO THE WEST...CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO
   SUPPORT UPSCALE GROWTH IN THE NEAR TERM...WITH ANY MCS LIKELY TO
   MOVE ESEWD ACROSS SRN NEB AND POTENTIALLY NRN KS. WITH THE POTENTIAL
   FOR ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS TO AFFECT AREAS IN AND SOUTH OF
   WWS 336 AND 338 PAST THEIR EXPIRATION TIMES...NEW WATCH ISSUANCE IS
   BEING CONSIDERED. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME IS THE
   MAINTENANCE OF INTENSE CONVECTION AS SURFACE-BASED CIN INCREASES
   WITH TIME.

   ..DEAN.. 06/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...

   LAT...LON   39700100 40750079 41790045 42279881 42779534 42259422
               41519435 40909457 40309476 39839519 39709620 39629818
               39700100 

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Page last modified: June 21, 2014
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