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Mesoscale Discussion 1100
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1100
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0847 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN NEBRASKA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 211347Z - 211545Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...WITH INTENSE CONVECTION GENERALLY LIMITED TO ONE
   CELL...WHICH SEEMS LIKELY TO WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...A
   WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.  BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   CLOSELY MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED BUT INTENSE LINGERING SUPERCELL...WHICH HAS
   AT LEAST BEEN PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD
   AT 35+ KT TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF NORTH PLATTE...MAY BE SHOWING
   SIGNS OF WEAKENING.  THIS TREND SEEMS LIKELY TO CONTINUE...WITH THE
   SUPPORTING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE FORECAST TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE
   CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO RISE WITH
   FLOW BECOME INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH 15-18Z.  THE LOWER/MID
   TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION REGIME WITHIN WHICH IT IS LIKELY ROOTED
   SHOULD WEAKEN/DEVELOP EASTWARD...AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL INHIBITION
   WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT SHOULD AT LEAST GRADUALLY SUPPRESS CONVECTION.
   UNTIL IT DOES THOUGH...THIS STORM MAY REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS IT TRACKS TOWARD/THROUGH THE MCCOOK
   AREA BY 15Z.

   ..KERR/CARBIN.. 06/21/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...

   LAT...LON   40700061 40590012 40070001 39710029 40180091 40490093
               40700061 

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Page last modified: June 21, 2015
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