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Mesoscale Discussion 1101
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1101
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1128 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...SW IA...NW MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 339...

   VALID 210428Z - 210600Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 339
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS WW 339 MAY CONTINUE INTO
   THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS ERN NEB AND WRN IA. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL
   SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MCS FROM
   CNTRL NEB EWD INTO SW IA. THE MCS IS LOCATED ON THE NRN EDGE OF A
   CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ANALYZED ACROSS ERN KS AND SERN
   NEB. SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS SERN NEB ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F AND
   MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. IN
   ADDITION TO THE INSTABILITY...A 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS LOCATED
   ACROSS WRN KS EXTENDING NEWD INTO SCNTRL NEB. THE NOSE OF THE
   LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE ACROSS SERN NEB...HELPING THE MCS TO PERSIST
   INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH 40 KT OF 0-6
   KM SHEAR EVIDENT ON THE HASTING NEB WSR-88D VWP WILL SUPPORT A
   SEVERE THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS EMBEDDED IN MCS. ALTHOUGH
   HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...THE GREATER THREAT COULD BE FOR DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS WITH CELL MERGERS AND SMALL BOWING LINE SEGMENTS.

   ..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 06/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

   LAT...LON   39899387 40039662 40159824 40579902 41169885 42099745
               41599463 40879362 39899387 

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Page last modified: June 21, 2014
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