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Mesoscale Discussion 1101
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1101
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0942 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...I-70 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH MISSOURI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 211442Z - 211645Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY REMAIN RELATIVELY LIMITED
   THROUGH MID DAY...BEFORE INCREASING LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  A WATCH
   PROBABLY WILL BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN INCREASING NEAR/NORTH OF
   THE I-70 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO CENTRAL
   MISSOURI...GENERALLY WITHIN A ZONE OF LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
   CONFLUENCE.  THIS LIKELY HAS BEEN AIDED BY FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING
   EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS...THOUGH
   INTENSIFICATION/INCREASE IN COVERAGE MAY STILL BE SLOWED A BIT BY
   INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR EMERGING
   FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
   AT LEAST A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL IN INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT
   IT SEEMS POSSIBLE THAT THIS THREAT COULD DIMINISH AS CONVECTIVE
   COVERAGE GRADUALLY INCREASES THROUGH MIDDAY.  LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS
   ARE RELATIVELY WEAK TO MODEST IN STRENGTH...BUT WITH
   TIME...LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE
   SOUTHERN FRINGE OF 30-50 KT WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW MAY SUPPORT AN
   UPSCALE GROWING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.  AS THIS OCCURS...AN ASSOCIATED
   STRENGTHENING/FORWARD PROPAGATING COLD POOL PROBABLY WILL BEGIN TO
   EMERGE WITH AN INCREASING RISK FOR POTENTIAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

   ..KERR/CARBIN.. 06/21/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   39839556 39999429 39889252 39119025 38349054 38269263
               38599548 39839556 

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Page last modified: June 21, 2015
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