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Mesoscale Discussion 1102
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1102
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0124 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN ALABAMA INTO SRN GEORGIA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 211824Z - 212030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER
   STORMS OVERSPREADING THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THE POTENTIAL
   FOR THE EVOLUTION OF AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WIND EVENT STILL SEEMS
   RATHER LOW...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOW WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS
   PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA INTO AREAS OF GEORGIA TO THE WEST AND
   SOUTH OF MACON.  THIS IS OCCURRING AS STRONG SURFACE HEATING OF A
   SEASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WEAKEN REMAINING
   INHIBITION.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS COULD BE AIDED BY FORCING
   ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE PROGRESSING THROUGH LIGHT
   NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW...TO THE EAST OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH
   CENTER NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.  WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
   REACHING THE MID/UPPER 90S IN AREAS NOT AFFECTED BY ONGOING
   CONVECTION...BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IS BECOMING RELATIVELY DEEP.  AND
   HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING AUGMENTED BY SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATIVE
   COOLING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG
   SURFACE GUSTS IN AND NEAR STRONGER STORMS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. 
   IF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER IMPULSE IS SUFFICIENT TO
   SUPPORT CONSOLIDATION INTO A GROWING CLUSTER OF STORMS...A
   SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING COLD POOL MAY EMERGE WITH INCREASING
   POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

   ..KERR/CARBIN.. 06/21/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...

   LAT...LON   33158540 33178444 32908338 31948181 30778265 31248591
               32108562 32798610 33158540 

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Page last modified: June 21, 2015
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