Mesoscale Discussion 1102
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017
Areas affected...Parts of western and central Kansas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 357...
Valid 202040Z - 202245Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 357
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development accompanied by increasing risk
for severe hail and wind expected across parts of western/central
Kansas through early evening.
DISCUSSION...Vigorous convective development is now well underway,
with storms beginning to increase in number near/west and southwest
of the Hill City area. In the presence of large CAPE (on the order
of 2000-3000 J/kg), strong vertical shear, and at least weak
lower/mid tropospheric warm advection, considerable further
intensification and upscale convective growth appears possible
The risk for severe hail will persist in strongest cells, and
locally strong downbursts are expected to become an increasing
threat in the presence of the strongly heated (surface temps in the
mid/upper 90s F) and deeply mixed boundary layer. Eventually, cold
pool consolidation and strengthening may coincide with the evolution
of an organized mesoscale convective system by this evening, which
should tend to forward propagate eastward/southward, perhaps
accompanied by an increasing areal risk for strong, potentially
damaging wind gusts.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 39790011 39599845 38809794 37529962 37260135 38180141