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Mesoscale Discussion 1102
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1102
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0340 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

   Areas affected...Parts of western and central Kansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 357...

   Valid 202040Z - 202245Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 357

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development accompanied by increasing risk
   for severe hail and wind expected across parts of western/central
   Kansas through early evening.

   DISCUSSION...Vigorous convective development is now well underway,
   with storms beginning to increase in number near/west and southwest
   of the Hill City area.  In the presence of large CAPE (on the order
   of 2000-3000 J/kg), strong vertical shear, and at least weak
   lower/mid tropospheric warm advection, considerable further
   intensification and upscale convective growth appears possible
   through 22-00Z.  

   The risk for severe hail will persist in strongest cells, and
   locally strong downbursts are expected to become an increasing
   threat in the presence of the strongly heated (surface temps in the
   mid/upper 90s F) and deeply mixed boundary layer.  Eventually, cold
   pool consolidation and strengthening may coincide with the evolution
   of an organized mesoscale convective system by this evening, which
   should tend to forward propagate eastward/southward, perhaps
   accompanied by an increasing areal risk for strong, potentially
   damaging wind gusts.

   ..Kerr.. 06/20/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   39790011 39599845 38809794 37529962 37260135 38180141
               39100132 39790011 

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