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Mesoscale Discussion 1103
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1103
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0152 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...KENTUCKY INTO SRN WEST VIRGINIA/SWRN VA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 211852Z - 212045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH
   MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME HAIL AND THE RISK FOR
   POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A WATCH PROBABLY WILL BE ISSUED
   WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

   DISCUSSION...INSOLATION BENEATH MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR EMANATING FROM THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS APPEARS TO BE CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF A
   REMNANT SOUTHWARD ADVANCING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. 
   CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS ZONE OF DIFFERENTIAL SURFACE HEATING ALREADY
   APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTING DEEPENING CUMULIFORM DEVELOPMENT. 
   INTENSIFICATION INTO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS
   INCREASINGLY LIKELY THROUGH 20-22Z...PERHAPS AIDED BY ONE OR MORE
   WEAK PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 30-35 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL
   FLOW.  VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE
   EVOLUTION OF SMALL ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
   POOLS CAPABLE OF GENERATING POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

   ..KERR/CARBIN.. 06/21/2015


   ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...

   LAT...LON   37768795 37888576 38258395 38128252 37888086 36928156
               36498462 36938781 37768795 

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Page last modified: June 21, 2015
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