Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1104
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1104 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1104
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1241 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN IA...EXTREME SRN WI...NRN/WRN
   IL...NERN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 211741Z - 211945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND A WW IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 19Z.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLD TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NRN IL AS OF 1730Z AS
   DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION HAS EFFECTIVELY ELIMINATED CINH AND
   RESULTED IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MESOANALYSIS DEPICTED A
   NW-SE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SRN WI INTO NERN IL...AND A
   SURFACE CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDING FROM SWRN WI SWD ACROSS ERN IA AND
   NERN MO. ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF
   THESE BOUNDARIES...AIDED BY ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT MCV
   MOVING EWD ACROSS NERN IA. BY MID-AFTN MLCAPE OF 2500 TO LOCALLY
   3500 J/KG WILL BE IN PLACE...AND COMBINED WITH 30 - 35 KTS OF
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED
   MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. TSTMS MAY
   ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS WITH A LOCALLY ENHANCED SVR WIND
   THREAT.

   CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND A WW IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO
   19Z.

   ..BUNTING/HART.. 06/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   40679192 42029113 42639020 42788909 42248827 41128828
               39978940 39519122 39939202 40679192 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 21, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities