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Mesoscale Discussion 1105
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1105
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0948 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

   Areas affected...Coastal areas of
   Louisiana...Mississippi...Alabama...and the Florida Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 210248Z - 210345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A recent uptick in convection has occurred over the past
   hour over coastal waters, with convection expected to eventually
   migrate inland.  A tornado watch is being considered.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered convection has increased in coverage and
   intensity over the past half hour, although this uptick has occurred
   primarily over open coastal waters from near the Chandeleur Islands
   eastward to areas near/south of Apalachicola, FL.  The greatest
   instability (boosted by mid/upper 70s F dewpoints) remains offshore,
   although some of the more unstable air has worked its way
   northwestward into far southeastern Louisiana, where objective
   analyses indicate nearly 1000 J/kg MUCAPE amidst 77-80 F dewpoints. 
   These higher dewpoints will advect northward gradually, with an
   increase in the potential for low-level mesocyclones and tornadoes
   gradually increasing in the discussion area in conjunction with the
   slightly greater destabilization.

   With these factors in mind, a tornado watch is being considered over
   the next hour or so.

   ..Cook/Guyer.. 06/21/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX...

   LAT...LON   29368919 29148925 29118998 29239029 29729027 30129014
               30468975 30688908 30858819 30938742 30878658 30668557
               30398512 29998484 29678485 29598507 29898562 30178615
               30268685 30208763 30088829 30078872 29598909 29368919 

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Page last modified: June 21, 2017
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