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Mesoscale Discussion 1105
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1105
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0223 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN WY...NEB PANHANDLE...WRN/CENTRAL SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 211923Z - 212030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
   WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A WW IS LIKELY PRIOR
   TO 21Z.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLD TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTN ALONG A WEAK
   SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS SWRN SD AND SERN WY. STRONG INSTABILITY HAS
   DEVELOPED WITH AN AXIS OF MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE
   BOUNDARY. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA
   THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AND WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND
   EVENTUALLY ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF STORMS.  STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 35
   TO 40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION
   OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY LARGE HAIL
   AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. LARGE TEMP-DEW POINT SPREADS WILL
   RESULT IN A DAMAGING WIND THREAT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN PORTION
   OF THE AREA. 

   A WW IS LIKELY PRIOR TO 21Z.

   ..BUNTING/HART.. 06/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...

   LAT...LON   44190415 45550306 45940149 45870027 45510008 44060050
               41650217 41540250 41620385 42120428 42910422 43250415
               44190415 

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Page last modified: June 21, 2014
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