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Mesoscale Discussion 1106
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1106
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0310 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN/ERN ND...NWRN MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 212010Z - 212115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
   REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY AND A TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WW IS
   POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 21Z.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
   SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NWRN MN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL ND AS OF
   1945Z. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ENHANCED CUMULUS FIELD
   ELSEWHERE ALONG THIS TROUGH AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND
   ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS PROBABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS. LOW-TO MID 60S DEW POINTS EXIST ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN
   MLCAPE AVERAGING 2000 TO 2500 J/KG WITH LITTLE REMAINING CINH. A
   SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH TIME...AND
   TSTM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTN. EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH LARGE
   HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AND A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND A WW IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO
   21Z.

   ..BUNTING/HART.. 06/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

   LAT...LON   48009628 47759566 46999527 46329543 46049604 46019736
               45989982 46010085 46940125 47949944 48009628 

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Page last modified: June 21, 2014
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