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Mesoscale Discussion 1106
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1106
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0356 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL MISSOURI INTO SRN ILLINOIS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 212056Z - 212300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WHICH COULD REQUIRE A NEW SEVERE WEATHER
   WATCH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST
   SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY NOW BE UNDERWAY ALONG
   MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS...GENERALLY
   TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF SEVERE WEATHER THUNDERSTORM WATCH 322.
   GIVEN APPARENT LARGE MIXED LAYER CAPE NOW PRESENT ALONG THESE
   BOUNDARIES...A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS
   POSSIBLE THROUGH 22-23Z...PERHAPS AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A
   LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
   LOWER MISSOURI/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  MUCH OF THE REGION MAY BE
   JUST SOUTH OF THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW...BUT ONE OR TWO EAST
   SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSING SMALL STORM CLUSTERS COULD EVOLVE BEFORE
   ACTIVITY WEAKENS LATER THIS EVENING.

   ..KERR/CARBIN.. 06/21/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   38479337 38609216 38639124 38539035 38818970 38528902
               38068848 37528809 37228937 37539010 37799366 38479337 

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Page last modified: June 21, 2015
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