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Mesoscale Discussion 1108
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1108
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0343 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...WRN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 212043Z - 212245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH
   SEPARATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION POSSIBLE OVER THE PLAINS OVER THE
   NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

   DISCUSSION...SURFACE LEE TROUGH AND LOW ARE DEEPENING OVER THE
   CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  THOUGH CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED INITIALLY OVER
   THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO...BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY OVER THE
   PLAINS SHOULD SUPPORT STORMS AS THEY MOVE EWD. CONVECTIVE INITIATION
   ALSO APPEARS PLAUSIBLE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS...AS SUPPORTED
   BY THE BOUNDARY-LAYER CUMULUS FIELD NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER.  GIVEN
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OVER 30 KTS /AS SAMPLED BY THE PLATTEVILLE CO
   PROFILER/...ORGANIZED STORMS WITH THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

   ..JIRAK/HART.. 06/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   37450244 37950294 38300329 38760369 39170426 39400452
               39790478 40090484 40350470 40640443 40770388 40920338
               40830268 40700209 40330158 39990129 39540120 39140120
               38800111 38360101 38030111 37830133 37700154 37460188
               37450244 

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Page last modified: June 21, 2014
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