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Mesoscale Discussion 1108
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1108
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0644 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN IA AND NORTHERN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 212344Z - 220115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE WARRANTED ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF SRN IA AND NORTHERN MO TO ACCOUNT FOR DEVELOPING HAIL THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ALONG NWRN
   FLANK OF OLD MCS NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EVOLVING
   WITHIN WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME ROUGHLY 50-100MI NORTH OF
   RETREATING OUTFLOW/WARM FRONT.  AGITATED CU FIELD EXTENDS INTO SERN
   NEBRASKA WHERE DEEPER UPDRAFTS ARE NOW PRODUCING WEAK ECHO RETURNS. 
   MRMS DATA SUGGESTS MOST OF THE INTENSIFYING UPDRAFTS OVER SRN IA/NRN
   MO ARE PRODUCING HAIL...SOME OF IT LARGER THAN ONE INCH.  THERE IS
   SOME CONCERN THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  IF SO...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE
   WARRANTED.

   ..DARROW/HART.. 06/21/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...

   LAT...LON   41129411 40389287 39719334 39919437 40069562 40419607
               40939562 41129411 

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