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Mesoscale Discussion 1109
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1109
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0549 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL SOUTH DAKOTA...ADJACENT NWRN
   NEB AND SERN NORTH DAKOTA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 341...342...

   VALID 212249Z - 220015Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   341...342...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO
   CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
   00-02Z TIME FRAME.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS NOW WELL UNDERWAY...WITH
   VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO INCREASE IN THE
   VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.  THIS INCLUDES RECENT NEW
   DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF PIERRE.  IT APPEARS THAT
   NEW STORMS WILL BEGIN TO FORM ALONG THE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF
   PIERRE SHORTLY...WITH GROWING/CONSOLIDATING COLD POOLS EVENTUALLY
   CONTRIBUTING TO FURTHER UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH ACROSS CENTRAL
   SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE 00-02Z TIME FRAME.  

   WITH VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING LARGE CAPE...
   CONSIDERABLE FURTHER CONVECTIVE INTENSIFICATION APPEARS
   POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR BECOMING MODERATELY
   STRONG WITH STRENGTHENING OF MID-LEVEL FLOW.  VERY LARGE HAIL IS
   POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST STORMS INTO EARLY EVENING...AND THE POTENTIAL
   FOR STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS AS WELL.

   ..KERR.. 06/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...

   LAT...LON   43870180 44740192 45510085 46109942 46849848 46449747
               45209782 44949810 43889904 42430036 41780117 42050236
               43050224 43870180 

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Page last modified: June 22, 2014
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