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Mesoscale Discussion 1110
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1110
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0832 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT...PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL ND...NWRN SD

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 324...326...

   VALID 220132Z - 220300Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 324...326...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...GREATEST SHORT-TERM SVR POTENTIAL RESIDES IN PORTIONS OF
   S-CNTRL ND AND N-CNTRL SD...WHERE LARGE HAIL...DMGG WIND GUSTS...AND
   A TORNADO OR TWO REMAIN POSSIBLE. DEVELOPING TSTMS OVER SERN MT ARE
   BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING INTENSITY AND ASSOCIATED SVR THREAT
   INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN ND AND NWRN SD.

   DISCUSSION...GREATEST SHORT-TERM TORNADO/SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TO
   RESIDE WITH A BROKEN LINE OF SUPERCELLS EXTENDING FROM PERKINS
   COUNTY SD NEWD THROUGH MORTON COUNTY ND...CO-LOCATED WITH
   INSTABILITY/LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS. ADDITIONAL TSTMS ALONG A WEAK
   COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT OVER N-CNTRL ND ARE LOCATED WITHIN RELATIVELY
   DRIER/LESS UNSTABLE AIR...BUT MAY STILL EXHIBIT POTENTIAL FOR
   INTERMITTENT SVR POTENTIAL. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
   ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING LLJ SHOULD ALLOW TSTMS TO PERSIST
   INTO SERN ND AND FAR W-CNTRL MN INTO THE LATE EVENING HRS. A DMGG
   WIND THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT SHOULD THIS SCENARIO OCCUR...AND
   TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE LOCAL EXTENSION OF
   TORNADO WATCH 324...OR ISSUANCE OF A NEW WW IN THE NEXT COUPLE HRS.

   MEANWHILE...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING FARTHER W
   ACROSS E-CNTRL/SERN MT...AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
   ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF THE DOWNSHEAR AIR MASS HAVE BEEN MODIFIED FROM
   EARLIER CONVECTION...SFC OBS STILL SHOW SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE IN
   PLACE /LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS/...AND THE LLJ SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED
   ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. CURRENT
   EXPECTATION IS THAT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO
   THE LATE EVENING...AND COULD EVOLVE INTO PERHAPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT
   SVR EVENT.

   ..ROGERS.. 06/22/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

   LAT...LON   47539743 46169718 45449997 44430134 44430370 45130521
               46180643 46890625 47630406 47850042 48079902 47539743 

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Page last modified: June 22, 2015
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