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Mesoscale Discussion 1110
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1110
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0616 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL MO...CNTRL/NRN IL...NW INDIANA...FAR SWRN
   MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 340...

   VALID 212316Z - 220045Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 340
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 340.
   DOWNSTREAM AREAS OF NRN INDIANA AND FAR SWRN MI ARE BEING MONITORED
   FOR WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS WW 340 HAS LARGELY CONGEALED INTO
   MULTIPLE QUASI-LINEAR STRUCTURES...WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY
   CURRENTLY OBSERVED FROM COU TO NORTH OF STL IN MISSOURI AND ACROSS
   NRN IL...INCLUDING THE CHICAGO METRO AREA...WHERE DAMAGING WINDS
   HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE LAST HOUR. WHILE EFFECTIVE SHEAR DECREASES
   WITH SWWD EXTENT...MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS E-CNTRL MO/W-CNTRL IL
   WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN ONGOING ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HRS...WITH
   SOME THREAT POTENTIALLY WORKING INTO THE STL METRO BY 00Z. 

   ACROSS NRN IL...THE TSTM COMPLEX IS MOVING SEWD IN AN ENVIRONMENT
   THAT IS LESS UNSTABLE COMPARED TO FURTHER SOUTH...BUT WITH STRONGER
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS AS DEPICTED BY OBJECTIVE MESOANALYSIS
   AND LOT VWP. WHILE THIS COMPLEX HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT IN THE LAST 30
   MINUTES...SOME REJUVENATION IS POSSIBLE ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE
   LAKE IN SWRN MO/NRN IND...WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST AND
   UNSTABLE WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN THIS AREA FOR POSSIBLE DOWNSTREAM WW
   ISSUANCE. 

   TSTMS ACROSS E-CNTRL IL HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY IN THE LAST HOUR
   AND DO NOT APPEAR TO POSE MUCH DOWNSTREAM SEVERE THREAT INTO W-CNTRL
   INDIANA...GIVEN WEAKER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND DIFLUENT LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW IN THIS AREA.

   ..DEAN.. 06/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...
   EAX...

   LAT...LON   39469278 39889201 40409121 41848948 42228905 42518794
               42438662 41938596 41548595 41048620 40638647 40198687
               39918717 39578771 39278842 38818939 38728987 38539043
               38499111 38439180 38519218 38569247 39469278 

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Page last modified: June 22, 2014
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