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Mesoscale Discussion 1111
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1111
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0814 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH DAKOTA AND ADJACENT NRN NEBRASKA/SERN NORTH
   DAKOTA AND WRN MINNESOTA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 341...342...

   VALID 220114Z - 220245Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   341...342...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE EVOLUTION OF AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED MESOSCALE
   CONVECTIVE SYSTEM STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE 02-04Z TIME
   FRAME.  A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS EAST OF WW 341.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS GENERATED MULTIPLE
   SIGNIFICANT COLD POOLS WHICH ARE ADVANCING GENERALLY EASTWARD
   BENEATH WEAK TO MODEST WESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW.  OUTFLOW
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD CLUSTER...NOW PROGRESSING INTO WEST CENTRAL
   MINNESOTA /TOWARD THE ALEXANDRIA AREA/ CURVES BACK TO THE WEST OF
   WATERTOWN SD... INTO AREAS WEST NORTHWEST OF HURON...WHERE AN
   INTERSECTION WITH A CONGLOMERATION OF EASTWARD ADVANCING OUTFLOW MAY
   FOCUS THE MOST INTENSE NEW/CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION THROUGH 02-04Z. 
   THIS IS GENERALLY ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF 30+ KT WESTERLY 500 MB
   FLOW...WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR IS STRONGEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA
   OF ENHANCED SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW /UP TO 30 KT/.

   MID/UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING
   REMAINS UNCLEAR...BUT A CONTINUING MODEST INFLOW OF MODERATE TO
   STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR APPEARS POSSIBLE AT LEAST AS FAR EAST AS THE
   INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR OF EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.  AND IT DOES
   APPEAR THAT THERE IS STILL TIME FOR FURTHER UPSCALE CONVECTIVE
   GROWTH INTO AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
   SYSTEM...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIVE WIND GUST THREAT...IN ADDITION TO A
   CONTINUING RISK FOR LARGE HAIL.

   ..KERR.. 06/22/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...

   LAT...LON   47499766 47999633 47049589 46109519 44649551 43909643
               43709805 43599876 42679936 42470091 43960124 45550101
               46079872 47499766 

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Page last modified: June 22, 2014
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