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Mesoscale Discussion 1112
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1112
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0117 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD/WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 220617Z - 220715Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS STORMS IN
   NORTHEAST SD EXIT WW 327 AND ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOP WITH E/SEWD
   EXTENT WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF INCREASING DEEP LAYER ASCENT.  HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A THREAT WITH THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY.  OF
   CONCERN AS WELL WILL BE A MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT
   EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHWEST MN AROUND 10Z ATTENDANT TO A FAST-MOVING
   LINEAR MCS EVOLVING OVER CENTRAL SD DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...AT 0550Z...RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A STRONG-SEVERE
   STORM IN NORTHEAST SD /MOVING INTO DAY COUNTY/ WITH ADDITIONAL
   STORMS DEVELOPING TO ITS NORTHWEST.  THIS STORM IS TRACKING TO THE
   SOUTHEAST AT 40+ KT AND WILL EXIT WW 327 INTO LAC QUI PARLE AND
   YELLOW MEDICINE COUNTIES MN BY 07Z.  IN ADDITION TO THIS
   STORM...ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN SD AND
   WEST-CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MN WITHIN AN INCREASING
   LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME AS A A SWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS AND A WARM FRONT
   MOVES NEWD INTO SERN SD TO NORTH-CENTRAL IA BY 09Z.  HEIGHT FALLS
   AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE WRN DAKOTAS WILL
   FURTHER SUPPORT NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...ALONG AND NORTHEAST
   OF THE WARM FRONT.

   THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP FAVORS AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
   CONTINUING TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING WITH
   MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY AND VERY STRONG BULK SHEAR FOR ELEVATED
   SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  AS THE EVOLVING
   LINER MCS SPREADS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF MN FROM BEFORE DAYBREAK
   INTO THE MORNING...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT
   PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...GIVEN A STRENGTHENING AND VERTICALLY
   VEERING WIND PROFILE.

   ..PETERS/MEAD.. 06/22/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

   LAT...LON   45929569 45389387 44919304 44129288 43669312 43579529
               43719673 44259785 44599781 45749632 45929569 

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Page last modified: June 22, 2015
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