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Mesoscale Discussion 1112
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1112
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1157 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD INTO SRN MN/NRN IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 344...

   VALID 220457Z - 220630Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 344
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL CONTINUES ANOTHER
   COUPLE OF HOURS.  HOWEVER...THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
   SUFFICIENTLY MARGINAL AND ISOLATED THAT THE NEED FOR ANOTHER WATCH
   IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH SUGGESTS THAT THE BELT OF
   ENHANCED SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW /20-30 KT/ IS IN THE PROCESS OF
   SHIFTING NORTH NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.  AS THIS
   CONTINUES...THERE APPEARS LITTLE SUPPORT FOR SUBSTANTIVE
   INTENSIFICATION OF THE REMNANT ONGOING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AS IT
   ADVANCES ACROSS THE SIOUX FALLS AREA INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND
   NORTHWESTERN IOWA BY 06-07Z.  

   ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DOES PERSIST WITHIN THE
   LARGER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...AND A STRONG DOWNBURST OR TWO MAY NOT YET
   BE OUT OF THE QUESTION BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS LATER TONIGHT. 
   HOWEVER...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
   INCREASINGLY MARGINAL AND ISOLATED AS ACTIVITY SPREADS EAST OF
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 344.

   ..KERR.. 06/22/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...

   LAT...LON   44299598 44329519 44319462 44049372 43769358 43009399
               42649480 42679626 42939722 43549714 44299598 

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Page last modified: June 22, 2014
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