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Mesoscale Discussion 1113
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1113
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1119 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN IA...SWRN WI...NWRN
   IL...NERN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 221619Z - 221800Z

   CORRECTED FOR RACINE MN

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS
   AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE
   NEEDED IN THE 17-18Z TIME FRAME.

   DISCUSSION...TSTMS CONTINUE TO BECOME SOMEWHAT BETTER ORGANIZED
   ALONG A LINE FROM JUST SOUTH OF RACINE MN TO GRINNELL IA WITH A MORE
   LINEAR STRUCTURE...TIGHTENING LEADING EDGE REFLECTIVITY GRADIENT AND
   OCCASIONALLY SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS. THESE STORMS MAY CURRENTLY BE
   SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...HOWEVER CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION IN ADVANCE OF
   THE LINE AND TRAILING COLD POOL WILL RESULT IN STRONG/SEVERE
   SURFACE-BASED TSTMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH TIME...THE LINE
   MAY DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH ALONG A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY ACROSS NERN MO. RECENT VWP DATA FROM KDMX SAMPLED 30 TO 40
   KT MID-LEVEL FLOW...LIKELY ENHANCED BY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED MCV OVER
   NRN IA. MLCAPE SHOULD AVERAGE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON
   AND BE SUPPORTIVE OF SVR TSTMS WITH PRIMARILY A THREAT FOR DAMAGING
   WINDS.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A WW IN THE
   17-18Z TIME FRAME. IN ADDITION...THE UPCOMING 1630Z DAY 1 CONVECTIVE
   OUTLOOK WILL EXTEND THE CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK EWD INTO FAR SERN
   MN...SWRN WI AND NWRN IL.

   ..BUNTING/WEISS.. 06/22/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   41019336 42299303 42729304 43539257 43689163 43379049
               42079003 41609011 41129039 40639065 40369077 39989138
               39949210 39989310 40219369 41019336 

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Page last modified: June 22, 2014
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