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Mesoscale Discussion 1113
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1113
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0310 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 220810Z - 220945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED PERSIST ACROSS NERN IA WITH SOME
   INCREASE IN COVERAGE POSSIBLE. ENVIRONMENT OVER THE AREA IS
   SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SVR HAIL.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WARM FRONT FROM ABOUT
   SHL SEWD TO CID WITH THE 70 DEG ISODROSOTHERM ACTING AS A GOOD
   INDICATOR OF THE FRONT/S POSITION. NERN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS
   FOCUSED INTO THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE ASSOCIATED WAA FORCING THE
   INCREASED TSTM ACTIVITY. WITH THE CONTINUED FOCUS OF THE LOW-LEVEL
   JET COUPLED WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY...TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
   TO PERSIST WITH SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE POSSIBLE. 

   OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   AND STRONG SHEAR /EFFECTIVE SHEAR RANGING FROM 50 TO 65 KT PER
   MESOANALYSIS/. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG AND N OF THE WARM FRONT
   ARE MODEST BUT SHOULD STILL BE STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT INSTABILITY.
   LATEST MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATED MUCAPE AROUND 15OO J/KG NEAR THE
   ONGOING ACTIVITY. AS SUCH...SOME SVR HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

   GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED MARGINAL AND ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SVR
   THREAT...A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED BUT TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION
   WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

   ..MOSIER/MEAD.. 06/22/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...

   LAT...LON   42379348 42799475 43289453 43439242 43089137 42109059
               41879161 42379348 

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Page last modified: June 22, 2015
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