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Mesoscale Discussion 1114
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1114
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1224 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN KS...NWRN MO...EXTREME SRN IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 221724Z - 221830Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
   EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE
   COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT...HOWEVER TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
   THE POSSIBILITY OF A WW.

   DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM DEVELOPED OVER BROWN COUNTY KS AT
   17Z ALONG A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...REINFORCED BY CONVECTIVE
   OUTFLOWS...EXTENDING FROM NORTH-CENTRAL KS EWD INTO NWRN MO. VISIBLE
   SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MESOANALYSIS REVEAL SLOWLY DEEPENING CU
   FIELD/ELIMINATION OF CINH ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THIS
   BOUNDARY...AND MLCAPE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. DESPITE OVERALL WEAK
   BACKGROUND FLOW ALOFT...THIS AREA IS ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF
   STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH MCV ALONG THE NEB/IA
   BORDER...AND LIKELY EXPERIENCING 25-30KTS OF MID-LEVEL FLOW.
   RESULTING DEEP SHEAR COMBINED WITH CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION WILL
   SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. PRIMARY
   UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM IS OVERALL COVERAGE OF SVR TSTMS. IF
   THE SVR THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE IN AREAL EXTENT...THEN A
   WW MAY BE NEEDED.

   ..BUNTING/WEISS.. 06/22/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   39789599 40039533 40449486 40869438 40959321 40499260
               39859248 39299312 38979463 38549593 38629693 39149751
               39599649 39789599 

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Page last modified: June 22, 2014
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