MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1114
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0105 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO / SWRN KS / NWRN TX AND WRN OK PNHDLS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 141805Z - 141930Z
   
   THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS IS EXPECTED TO
   INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR
   A WW.
   
   LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER FAR NERN NM
   WITH AN ASSOCIATED WSW-ENE ORIENTED BOUNDARY INTENSIFYING ACROSS
   CNTRL KS.  TO THE S...A DRYLINE WAS RAPIDLY MIXING EWD THROUGH ERN
   NM...WHILE A WARM FRONT /DELINEATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM SATURDAY
   STORMS/ WAS RETREATING NWD THROUGH THE TX PNHDL.
   
   FORECAST IS COMPLEX TODAY OWING TO THE NEWD TRANSLATION OF A LEAD
   IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE TX PNHDL INTO WRN OK...AND THE EARLY NEWD
   EJECTION OF PRIMARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH CNTRL INTO NERN NM. 
   AS A RESULT...STRONG DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT IS ALREADY
   BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD DISCUSSION AREA PRIOR TO PEAK AIR MASS
   DESTABILIZATION.  CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH
   DISTURBANCES WILL RESTRICT DIABATIC HEATING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
   AFTERNOON.  NONETHELESS...THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
   AND MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF
   MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE WILL APPROACH 1000-2000 J/KG.
   
   GIVEN THE RAPID ARRIVAL OF THE DYNAMIC FORCING ATTENDANT TO PRIMARY
   MIDLEVEL TROUGH...EXPECT STORMS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
   AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AS WELL AS INVOF
   SURFACE LOW AND ABOVE-MENTIONED BOUNDARIES.  ABQ VWPS SHOWS A 50 KT
   JET STREAK ACCOMPANYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE MIDLEVELS WHICH
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE THAN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR
   SUPERCELLS.  WHILE LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...A
   TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CAN
   EFFECTIVELY UTILIZE AVAILABLE BOUNDARIES AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.
   
   ..MEAD.. 06/14/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...
   
   LAT...LON   37240313 37410434 38210460 38640399 38880302 38860181
               38610107 37880065 37100067 36200136 35660215 35600281
               36640279 37240313