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Mesoscale Discussion 1114
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1114
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0316 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL...CENTRAL AND NERN
   SD/SOUTH-CENTRAL-SERN ND/WEST-CENTRAL MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 327...328...

   VALID 220816Z - 220945Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   327...328...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...VERY STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS /UP TO 70-90 MPH/ ARE
   EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
   ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN SD...POTENTIALLY REACHING SOUTHWEST MN
   BY 10Z.  MEANWHILE...WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS SERN ND SUGGESTS THE
   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE IN THAT PORTION OF WW
   327...WITH COUNTIES TO THE WEST OF THE PRIMARY CENTRAL SD STORMS
   BEING REMOVED FROM WW 327 AS THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT ADVANCE
   TO THE EAST.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS WRN INTO CENTRAL
   PORTIONS OF SD STRONGLY INDICATE UPSCALE GROWTH IS WELL UNDERWAY FOR
   A FAST-MOVING LINEAR MCS...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM HUGHES...LYMAN
   INTO JONES COUNTIES.  SINCE 07Z...KUDX DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
   DEVELOPING VERY INTENSE WLY REAR-INFLOW JET WITH WIND SPEEDS OF
   85-110 KT AT 5000-6800 FEET AGL.  THE BOW HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE
   IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE LAST HOUR...AND...AS OF 0810Z...WAS
   MOVING TO THE EAST AT 70+ KT.  AT THIS SPEED...THE BOW CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS WILL AFFECT HURON SD BY 09Z AND
   BEGIN TO MOVE INTO WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MN AROUND 10Z.

   ADDITIONAL STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WERE CONTINUING TO EVOLVE ACROSS
   NORTH-CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST SD AND ALSO FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO
   SOUTHEAST SD...WITH THE LATTER LOCATED ALONG AND NORTH OF A N/NEWD
   MOVING WARM FRONT.  MASS FIELD RESPONSES TO HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF AN
   EWD-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE TO
   SUPPORT A STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO SRN MN
   THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.  STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE RISES BEHIND AN
   EWD-MOVING COLD FRONT AND STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTENING AND WAA COUPLED WITH STRONG BULK SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO
   FAVOR A PARAMETER SPACE CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AND
   LARGE HAIL.

   ..PETERS.. 06/22/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...

   LAT...LON   43990114 44830062 45639895 46169876 46299746 46049597
               44519607 43649615 43129659 43099819 43399973 43440101
               43990114 

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Page last modified: June 22, 2015
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