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Mesoscale Discussion 1115
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1115
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1259 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN AR...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
   MS...CENTRAL/SRN AL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 221759Z - 221900Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
   RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
   SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND A WW IS NOT
   CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM WRN
   MS ESEWD INTO EAST-CENTRAL AL.  THIS AXIS IS CHARACTERIZED BY
   LOCALLY ENHANCED/DEEPER CUMULUS FIELD AND A MODEST SFC MOISTURE
   GRADIENT. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE OF 2500 TO
   LOCALLY 3500 J/KG WITHIN A WEAK SHEAR/HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT. THE MORE
   INTENSE PULSE-TYPE UPDRAFTS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP
   LOADING AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL
   TEMPS OVER THIS AREA SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
   IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

   OVERALL COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED
   AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   ..BUNTING/WEISS.. 06/22/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LZK...

   LAT...LON   32238966 33049112 33669141 34029113 34069078 34049023
               33948988 33518894 33298801 33268742 33098661 32928578
               32748525 32208502 31578524 31778635 32238966 

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Page last modified: June 22, 2014
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