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Mesoscale Discussion 1115
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1115
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0453 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN SD...SOUTHERN MN...PART OF NRN IA...AND
   SOUTHWEST WI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 328...

   VALID 220953Z - 221200Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 328
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH SOME HAIL ATTENDANT TO THE STORMS
   SPREADING ACROSS ERN SD INTO SOUTHWEST MN...AND NEW STORMS FORMING
   N/NE OF THE WARM FRONT INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MN AND NORTH-CENTRAL IA. 
   ALTHOUGH THE BOWING STRUCTURE THAT MOVED THROUGH PIERRE SD AROUND
   08Z WITH A WIND GUST OF 70 KT HAD WEAKENED...RECENT RADAR TRENDS
   SUGGEST THE STORMS IN SERN SD MAY EVOLVE INTO A BOWING STRUCTURE AND
   TRACK INTO SOUTHWEST MN AND POSSIBLY ADJACENT NRN IA.  A NEW SEVERE
   TSTM WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR PARTS OF NRN IA..SOUTHEAST MN AND
   SOUTHWEST WI.

   DISCUSSION...THE GREATEST CONCERN IN THE SHORT-TERM FOR STRONG AND
   DAMAGING WINDS AND A HAIL THREAT IS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD INTO
   SOUTHWEST MN AND ADJACENT NORTHWEST TO NORTH-CENTRAL IA AS RADAR
   IMAGERY THROUGH 0945Z SUGGESTED A NEW DEVELOPING BOW STRUCTURE IN
   SOUTHEAST SD.  SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THE WARM SECTOR HAS MOVED
   INTO SERN SD AND FAR SWRN MN WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 70 F IN
   THESE AREAS AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE N/NEWD EARLY THIS
   MORNING.  A STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ UP TO 50-60 KT FROM NEB INTO SRN
   MN IS RESULTING IN AN STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME FROM THE MID MO
   VALLEY INTO IA AND SRN AND CENTRAL MN.  THIS COUPLED WITH HEIGHT
   FALLS ATTENDANT TO THE DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
   SUPPORT WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WW 328 INTO NRN IA...AND
   EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST WI.

   THE DEVELOPING BOW WITH THE CAPABILITY FOR STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS
   SHOULD ADVANCE EWD AT 50+ KT AS CURRENTLY DETECTED BY THE FSD
   WSR-88D...REACHING WORTHINGTON MN BY 11Z AND FAIRMONT MN BY 12Z. 
   THIS TRACK PLACES THE BOW ALONG A MODERATELY STRONG INSTABILITY
   GRADIENT EXTENDING FROM SERN SD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MN AND
   NORTH-CENTRAL IA.

   ..PETERS/MEAD.. 06/22/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...ABR...LBF...

   LAT...LON   42969947 45129775 45739572 45379276 44589231 44079073
               43739047 43259036 42829081 42799164 42849180 42799360
               42919618 42969947 

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Page last modified: June 22, 2015
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