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Mesoscale Discussion 1116
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1116
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0742 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MN...NORTHERN AND
   EASTERN IA...WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST AND SRN WI AND PART OF NRN IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 328...329...330...

   VALID 221242Z - 221415Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   328...329...330...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN A THREAT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
   AND EAST-CENTRAL MN...NORTHEAST IA AND WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST WI. 
   STORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NEAR AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT FROM
   SOUTHEAST MN THROUGH NORTHEAST IA AND SOUTHWEST WI AHEAD OF THE BOW
   WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  IN
   ADDITION...STRONG TO SEVERE N/NWLY WIND GUSTS REMAIN A POTENTIAL
   THREAT ATTENDANT TO A WAKE LOW WEST OF THE BOW.  

   A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM OF THE BOW AS IT SHOULD PROGRESS
   E/SEWD THIS MORNING INTO PARTS OF ERN IA...SRN WI AND NRN IL.

   DISCUSSION...AT 12Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A COMPLEX
   DISPLAY OF STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN INTO NORTHERN IA
   AND DEVELOPING EWD INTO WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WI.  A BOW
   EXTENDED FROM NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO SSWWD INTO
   NORTH-CENTRAL IA AND WAS MOVING TO THE EAST/EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 50-60
   KT.  A 50 KT SWLY LLJ AS SAMPLED BY THE DMX/OAX WSR-88D/S WILL
   RESULT IN FURTHER STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA AND A FEED OF
   MODERATELY-STRONG INSTABILITY INTO THE SRN EXTENT OF THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY MCS.  

   A VERY STRONG /AROUND 90 KT/ AND DESCENDING REAR-INFLOW JET AS
   OBSERVED EARLIER WITH THE FSD WSR-88D INDICATED WILL CONTINUE TO
   ENHANCE THE SEVERE AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH THE BOW. 
   OTHERWISE...STORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR A WARM FRONT
   IN SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA INTO SWRN AND SRN WI THIS MORNING AS
   THIS FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTH.  GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE PORTION
   OF THE BOW IN NORTH-CENTRAL IA TO SPREAD INTO ERN IA/SRN WI AND NRN
   IL AFTER 14Z...A NEW WW MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED THIS MORNING...SOUTH
   THROUGH EAST OF WW 330.

   ..PETERS.. 06/22/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

   LAT...LON   42079416 42389504 42569530 42819514 43099453 43579412
               44129432 44619442 44809433 44969381 45159214 44899045
               42918949 42198936 41548966 41499115 41839277 42079416 

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Page last modified: June 22, 2015
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