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Mesoscale Discussion 1116
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1116
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0149 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN MT...WRN ND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 021849Z - 022115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
   EAST/SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY
   PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED
   DUE TO THE ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A SURFACE LOW ACROSS
   SOUTHEAST MT...ALONG A NW-SE ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED JUST
   LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A MOIST UPSLOPE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS
   WESTWARD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DIURNAL
   HEATING/MIXING WILL PARTIALLY OFFSET MOISTURE ADVECTION...WITH
   WEAK-MODERATE MLCAPE /1000-1500 J/KG...LOCALLY HIGHER/ DEVELOPING
   THIS AFTERNOON. MODEST WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS...SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.

   LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS GRADUALLY DEEPENING CUMULUS
   CLOUDS/DIMINISHING CINH...AND AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS IS
   EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION
   AREA. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW SUB-CLOUD RELATIVE
   HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RESULT IN STRONG DOWNDRAFTS/DAMAGING GUSTS WITH
   THE STRONGEST STORMS.  STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH
   ADEQUATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL ALSO RESULT IN A RISK FOR ISOLATED
   LARGE HAIL. STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO A COUPLE OF EAST/SOUTHEAST-MOVING
   CLUSTERS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND APPROACH WESTERN PORTIONS OF
   ND TOWARDS EVENING WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS.

   THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND A WATCH IS NOT
   CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

   ..BUNTING/CORFIDI.. 07/02/2016


   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

   LAT...LON   48950841 48990352 48970295 47160313 46080363 45790415
               45690533 45850606 46250711 47170788 48950841 

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Page last modified: July 02, 2016
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