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Mesoscale Discussion 1117
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1117
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0222 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY...WRN NEB PANHANDLE...ERN CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 221922Z - 222115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE
   NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS OVER
   THE PLAINS.  TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A WW.

   DISCUSSION...SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON OVER THE PLAINS FROM NLY TO A MORE ELY/UPSLOPE COMPONENT. 
   THIS SHOULD ENHANCE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH WLY FLOW AT 6 KM AGL
   AROUND 30 KTS /PER LOCAL VWP DATA/. GIVEN MLCAPE VALUES AOA 1000
   J/KG...THE SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. 
   DISCRETE STORMS WILL INITIALLY POSE A PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL
   AND ISOLATED WIND GUSTS.  AS STORMS MOVE INTO THE DEEP/WELL-MIXED
   BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND GROW
   UPSCALE...A MORE ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP.

   ..JIRAK/WEISS.. 06/22/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   37180322 37370370 38390439 38830480 39200517 39550524
               39890524 40500544 41160545 41580539 41750523 41830483
               41800455 41790372 41610324 41300267 40610217 39550209
               38800210 38210205 37750215 37470223 37170272 37180322 

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Page last modified: June 22, 2014
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