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Mesoscale Discussion 1118
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1118
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1100 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL TO NORTHERN INDIANA/LOWER
   MI/FAR NORTHWEST OH

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 331...332...

   VALID 221600Z - 221800Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   331...332...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A CORRIDOR OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN A
   CONCERN ACROSS SOUTHEAST WI AND NORTHERN IL INTO MIDDAY/EARLY
   AFTERNOON. THIS MCS-RELATED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL LIKELY TO
   DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN INDIANA/LOWER MI/FAR NORTHWEST OH
   THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE A NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED PROVIDED
   MCS SUSTENANCE.

   DISCUSSION...A WELL-ORGANIZED/FAST-MOVING QUASI-LINEAR MCS CONTINUES
   TO STEADILY PROGRESS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST WI AND
   NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL IL AS OF 1045AM CDT/1545Z. A STRONG
   DESCENDING REAR-INFLOW JET AND LINE-TRAILING COLD POOL/BUBBLE HIGH
   REMAINS READILY EVIDENT IN REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP/SURFACE DATA ACROSS
   EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHWEST WI. AHEAD OF THE
   QUASI-LINEAR MCS...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE 70S F
   ACROSS NORTHERN IL INTO SOUTHEAST WI...ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WINDS
   ACROSS NORTHERN IL HAVE TENDED TO VEER OVER TIME WITH SOME PROBABLE
   RELATED WEAKENING OF LINE-RELATIVE INFLOW. THERE HAS BEEN A RECENT
   TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY WARMING CLOUD TOPS /ALBEIT STILL VERY COLD AT
   AROUND -75C/ WITH A MODEST WEAKENING OF SOME OF LINE-EMBEDDED
   UPDRAFTS AS OF 1530Z. EVEN SO...THE FAST-MOVING NATURE OF THE MCS
   SHOULD CONTINUE LINE-EMBEDDED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY
   ACROSS SOUTHEAST WI AND ON THE SOUTHWEST-PERIPHERY OF THE CONVECTIVE
   LINE ACROSS NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL IL.

   MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHWARD/BECOME
   INCREASINGLY ESTABLISHED INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI LATE THIS MORNING
   WITH DESTABILIZATION STEADILY OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN
   INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MI AS OF LATE MORNING/MIDDAY. CONTINUED CELL
   MERGERS AND DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION MAY LEAD TO A
   PERSISTENCE/REINVIGORATION OF CONVECTION ACROSS LAKE MI...SUCH THAT
   A NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR LOWER MI/NORTHERN INDIANA/FAR
   NORTHWEST OH PENDING CONTINUED MCS SUSTENANCE.

   ..GUYER.. 06/22/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   43298869 43868573 43488379 41668413 40878617 41199026
               41679035 42298879 43298869 

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Page last modified: June 22, 2015
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