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Mesoscale Discussion 1119
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1119
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0311 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of the northern Plains

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 220811Z - 220915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few intensifying thunderstorms early this morning may be
   capable of isolated instances of large hail, and perhaps a few
   stronger gusts. However, the threat is currently expected to remain
   limited enough to preclude watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...On the southern fringe of a mid/upper jet maximum,
   isolated/widely scattered thunderstorms have developed early this
   morning. Recent Aberdeen, SD (KABR) VWP data exhibit westerly
   mid-level flow around 50-60kt, with resultant deep-layer shear
   sufficient for updraft organization/rotation. Therefore, as these
   cells move east into more substantial mid-level buoyancy (e.g.,
   MUCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg), they may be capable of isolated large
   hail reports. Moreover, despite being rooted above the surface
   (likely near 700mb), pockets of sufficient low-level temp/dew point
   spreads may support occasional strong, gusty surface winds. This
   threat will be further enhanced by small bowing segments resulting
   from somewhat uni-directional flow in the convective layer.
   Nonetheless, any severe threat is currently expected to remain
   spatially limited, likely precluding overnight watch issuance.

   ..Picca/Edwards.. 06/22/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...UNR...

   LAT...LON   44000089 44280097 44770004 45259662 45249473 45069418
               44459395 44009406 43729504 43459636 43289751 43299912
               43370028 43880088 44000089 

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Page last modified: June 22, 2017
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