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Mesoscale Discussion 1119
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1119
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0122 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND
   WESTERN ILLINOIS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 221822Z - 222015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ONGOING CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
   AREA...WITH HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT.  REDEVELOPMENT ALONG/SOUTH OF
   AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL POSE A
   GREATER THREAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
   WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE.  WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED LATER
   THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL
   ARE ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA. THESE STORMS WERE ELEVATED ATOP A
   COLD POOL LEFT BEHIND FROM AN EARLIER MCS...WITH STEEP LAPSE
   RATES/INSTABILITY ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO A CONTINUED HAIL THREAT. 
   ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF AN OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN IOWA...BUT THESE STORMS WERE
   LIKELY ROOTED ABOVE A STRONG CAP AT AROUND 750 MB.  THESE STORMS MAY
   ALSO YIELD A SMALL HAIL THREAT THIS AFTERNOON....BUT SHOULD REMAIN
   LARGELY SUB-SEVERE UNLESS THEY CAN BECOME SURFACE BASED THIS
   AFTERNOON.

   LATER THIS AFTERNOON...STORMS ARE EXPECTED GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
   SURFACE BASED WITH DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ALONG A SEWD-MOVING COLD
   FRONT IN IOWA...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG NEARLY
   STATIONARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA AND WESTERN
   ILLINOIS.  RECENT HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD
   WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT IS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN IOWA NEAR AND
   NORTHEAST OF DES MOINES.  WITH STRONG INSTABILITY /I.E. 3000-4000
   J/KG MLCAPE/ AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 45 KNOTS
   EXPECTED...AN APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST WITH LARGE HAIL
   AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.  ADDITIONALLY...ANY STORMS
   DEVELOPING ALONG OR NEAR THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY POSE A
   TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN REMAIN ISOLATED RELATIVELY
   EARLY IN THEIR EVOLUTION.

   GIVEN THE EXPECTED THREAT THIS AFTERNOON...A WW MAY BE NEEDED BEFORE
   21Z.

   ..COOK/GOSS.. 06/22/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...

   LAT...LON   40999525 41309537 41669519 42019496 42119444 42079365
               42099315 42209224 42339123 42339054 42118968 41668888
               40828872 40248899 39919010 39879060 39849157 40179344
               40469441 40739506 40999525 

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Page last modified: June 22, 2015
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