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Mesoscale Discussion 1119
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1119
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0257 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/CNTRL KS...OK/TX PANHANDLES...NWRN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 221957Z - 222100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE INITIATION LIKELY IN THE NEXT HOUR ACROSS THE
   REGION.  A WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

   DISCUSSION...CUMULUS FIELD IS DEEPENING OVER SWRN KS AND THE ERN OK
   PANHANDLE IN THE VICINITY OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW LENDING
   CONFIDENCE TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THAT AREA.  FARTHER NORTH AND
   EAST...CUMULUS FIELD IS ALSO DEEPENING NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE
   FRONT AND RETREATING OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  GIVEN THE VERY UNSTABLE
   AIRMASS IN PLACE /MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG PER LATEST
   MESOANALYIS DATA/ AND NWLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AOA 30 KTS...ORGANIZED
   SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS.

   ..JIRAK/WEISS.. 06/22/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36179994 36060009 35950045 35990093 36180148 36660158
               37350144 37890128 38430101 38910034 39129989 39319941
               39419901 39579842 39449708 39239675 38959703 38599835
               38149876 37359923 36809942 36439969 36179994 

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Page last modified: June 22, 2014
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