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Mesoscale Discussion 1120
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1120
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0209 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN INDIANA/NORTHERN OH/FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 221909Z - 222045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE/INTENSIFY ACROSS PARTS OF
   NORTHEAST INDIANA/FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MI INTO NORTHERN OH...AND POSE
   A RISK FOR MOSTLY SEVERE WIND/HAIL. MONITORING DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS
   FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED/INTENSIFIED ACROSS FAR
   SOUTHERN LOWER MI AND ADJACENT NORTHERN INDIANA AS OF 1845Z. THIS
   ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN MCV/EARLIER
   MCS ACROSS WESTERN LOWER MI AND RELATED
   SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD-EXTENDING OUTFLOW. THE PRECEDING AIR MASS ACROSS
   NORTHERN INDIANA INTO NORTHERN OH NEAR/SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT HAS
   BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED COINCIDENT WITH SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S F. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN
   THE SHORTER-TERM REGARDING THE OVERALL EXTENT/MAGNITUDE OF THE
   SEVERE RISK...BUT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK SEEMS PROBABLE
   AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
   WATCH.

   ..GUYER/GOSS.. 06/22/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...

   LAT...LON   40938642 41938578 41978425 41798322 41498245 40708268
               40528455 40938642 

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Page last modified: June 22, 2015
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