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Mesoscale Discussion 1120
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1120
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1236 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 031736Z - 032000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH DEVELOPING
   THUNDERSTORMS. WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIATED AS OF 1730Z ALONG A
   REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. ADDITIONAL
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR FURTHER S INTO CNTRL SC
   ALONG A WEAK SFC TROUGH/CONFLUENCE LINE PER LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
   IMAGERY. TEMPERATURES ALONG A S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE
   GENERALLY WARMED INTO THE 90S...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
   70S. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK ACROSS THE MCD AREA PER
   12Z AREA SOUNDINGS...STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AND PLENTIFUL LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED MLCAPE OF 1000-2500 J/KG TO DEVELOP ALONG/S OF
   THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN
   UPPER LOW OVER ERN CANADA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DISPLACED TO THE N OF
   THE CAROLINAS...BUT WEAK LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO SWLY/WLY AND
   INCREASING TO 20-30 KT AROUND 500 MB MAY ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
   CONGEAL INTO ESEWD-MOVING SHORT LINE SEGMENTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS. STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE MAIN
   THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO
   OCCUR INITIALLY. WW ISSUANCE REMAINS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME...MAINLY
   DUE TO THE MARGINAL WINDS ALOFT LIKELY LIMITING STORM ORGANIZATION.

   ..GLEASON/CORFIDI.. 07/03/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   34848202 35318154 35287830 35407637 35457537 35207541
               34747627 33777788 33427884 33408065 33418074 33648136
               34848202 

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Page last modified: July 03, 2016
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