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Mesoscale Discussion 1121
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1121
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0250 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 221950Z - 222045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
   MINNESOTA AND WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN THROUGH
   THE AFTERNOON.  LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS.
   TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING IN
   INTENSITY ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA.  THE REGION IS UNDER THE
   INFLUENCE OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH...WITH INSOLATION AND COOLING ALOFT RESULTING IN 500-1000
   J/KG MUCAPE AMIDST LOW 60S DEWPOINTS.  WIND PROFILES IN THE
   DISCUSSION ARE LARGELY WESTERLY AND UNIDIRECTIONAL...WITH 50-60 KNOT
   MID-LEVEL FLOW PROVIDING SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. 
   1-1.5 INCH HAIL IS THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH CONVECTION AS IT
   INCREASES IN INTENSITY AND MOVES TOWARD WESTERN WISCONSIN.  THE
   ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH A
   DECREASE IN INTENSITY EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER DARK.  ADDITIONAL
   INTENSIFICATION COULD WARRANT WW ISSUANCE...AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..COOK/GOSS.. 06/22/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...

   LAT...LON   44839410 45219436 45799432 46919383 47439334 47719263
               47649191 47169143 46779139 46529125 46029141 45569166
               45189195 44879236 44709283 44729361 44839410 

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Page last modified: June 22, 2015
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