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Mesoscale Discussion 1121
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1121
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0558 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IA...NERN MO...WRN IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 345...

   VALID 222258Z - 230030Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 345
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE WIND/HAIL RISK CONTINUES IN AND NEAR THE
   REMAINING PART OF WW 345. DUE TO LARGELY DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE
   THREAT...DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...AT 2250Z...TWO LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINES WERE
   ONGOING...ONE ACROSS WRN IL WEST OF PIA AND ANOTHER ACROSS FAR SERN
   IA/WRN IL INTO NERN MO. ADDITIONAL MORE ISOLATED CELLS HAVE RECENTLY
   DEVELOPED NEAR PIA. THUS FAR...ACTIVITY HAS BEEN TOO DISORGANIZED TO
   PRODUCE A ROBUST SEVERE RISK...BUT SOME THREAT WILL PERSIST INTO
   PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL IL WHERE STRONG INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE. IMMINENT
   CELL MERGERS NEAR/NORTH OF PIA MAY RESULT IN A SHORT-TERM INCREASE
   IN STORM INTENSITY EAST OF WW 345...WITH OTHER CELLS PULSING UP INTO
   NERN MO IN THE INSTABILITY AXIS. WITH WEAK FLOW THROUGHOUT THE
   TROPOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION...MAINTENANCE OF AN ORGANIZED SEVERE
   THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED AND DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE SHOULD NOT BE
   NECESSARY.

   ..DEAN.. 06/22/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...

   LAT...LON   39609279 40409196 41119133 41499105 41719033 41768946
               41748917 41398898 40818894 40418904 40048915 39648974
               39469044 39409126 39399194 39409253 39609279 

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Page last modified: June 23, 2014
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