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Mesoscale Discussion 1122
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1122
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0625 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE COLORADO...SW KANSAS AND THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA
   PANHANDLE REGION

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 346...347...

   VALID 222325Z - 230100Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   346...347...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH LARGE
   HAIL AND INCREASING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
   00-02Z TIME FRAME.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH SUGGESTS THAT VERTICAL SHEAR
   IS STRONG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...DUE MAINLY TO
   PRONOUNCED VEERING WITH HEIGHT OF THE LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERIC WIND
   FIELDS.  OTHERWISE...THE DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW IS WESTERLY AND
   GENERALLY LIGHT...BUT WITH A WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSE PROGRESSING EAST
   SOUTHEAST OF THE COLORADO HIGH PLAINS.  THIS FEATURE HAS CONTRIBUTED
   TO A SUBSTANTIVE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS...NOW IN THE PROCESS OF
   SPREADING OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS.  

   PERHAPS MOST PROMINENT...A STRENGTHENING COLD POOL GENERATED BY THIS
   ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO BEGIN SURGING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF EAST
   CENTRAL COLORADO DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  AS THIS ENCOUNTERS
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EMANATING FROM INTENSE CONVECTION TO THE
   EAST...ADDITIONAL NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS PROBABLE DURING THE
   00-02Z TIME FRAME ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS NEAR/NORTHWEST THROUGH
   NORTH OF ELKHART KS.  IN THE PRESENCE OF THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
   CHARACTERIZED BY FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE
   CAPE...LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST CELLS...IN ADDITION
   TO THE RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS NEAR MOST CONVECTION.

   MEANWHILE...THE MORE DISCRETE DOWNSTREAM ONGOING STORM
   DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY THE CELL NORTHWEST OF GAGE OK...MAY
   MAINTAIN INTENSITY...OR EVEN SLOWLY BEGIN TO GROW UPSCALE...IN THE
   PRESENCE OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AT LEAST
   WEAK WARM ADVECTION.  THERE MAY BE LITTLE  MOVEMENT UNTIL ACTIVITY
   IS OVERTAKEN BY THE APPROACHING COLD POOL LATER THIS EVENING.

   ..KERR.. 06/22/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   37950188 38050030 38099876 37309875 36349926 35590025
               35430165 36410305 36810343 37410334 37950188 

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Page last modified: June 23, 2014
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