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Mesoscale Discussion 1123
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1123
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0112 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern CO

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 221812Z - 222015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Some increase in the threat for large hail and strong to
   damaging winds should occur with thunderstorms developing this
   afternoon. Watch issuance is possible.

   DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery shows towering cumulus
   building along the Front Range of eastern CO near Boulder as a
   surface cold front provides the low-level convergence needed to
   support convective initiation. Even though low-level moisture
   remains quite limited at the moment along/north of the front,
   continued diurnal heating and a gradual increase in low-level
   moisture (even with northerly trajectories) is expected through the
   remainder of the afternoon across much of eastern CO per surface
   observations. Steep mid-level lapse rates are also present across
   much of this region per 12Z sounding from DNR. As this gradual
   increase in low-level moisture occurs, a corresponding increase in
   instability is expected, with MLCAPE of generally 500-1500 J/kg
   expected by peak heating around 22-00Z. Although low-level flow
   should remain weak, mid-level winds around 20-40 kt and a strongly
   veering profile with height should support about 35-45 kt of
   effective bulk shear, stronger across northeastern CO. A mix of
   supercells and short line segments may develop both along the Front
   Range and the surface cold front. Isolated large hail and strong to
   locally damaging winds appear possible with these thunderstorms, and
   a watch may be needed in the next several hours across parts of
   eastern CO depending on short-term radar and observational trends.

   ..Gleason/Guyer.. 06/22/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   40050545 40900516 40940312 40170216 37870215 37820362
               38340462 40050545 

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