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Mesoscale Discussion 1123
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1123
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0633 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN CO...SERN WY...NEB PANHANDLE.

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 222333Z - 230100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON...AS ARC OF INTERMITTENTLY SVR
   CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS INCREASING MOISTURE/BUOYANCY WHILE MOVING EWD
   OUT OF SRN WY MTNS TOWARD AT LEAST MRGLLY FAVORABLE AIR MASS NEAR
   WY/NEB BORDER.  ADDITIONAL STG-SVR TSTMS OVER WELD COUNTY CO MAY
   CONTINUE TO POSE SVR THREAT AS THEY MOVE SEWD...BEFORE REACHING
   OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION IN NRN PORTIONS WW 346.

   DISCUSSION...ARC OF TSTMS OVER SERN WY PRODUCED 51-KT GUST AT CPR AT
   2219Z AND IS MOVING INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE MOIST AIR MASS WITH
   FORWARD-PROPAGATING COLD POOL AND ISALLOBARIC PERTURBATION EVIDENT. 
   AS SUCH...CONTINUED AND PERHAPS INCREASED ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE. 
   FOREGOING LOW-LEVEL/POST-FRONTAL ELY COMPONENT WILL CONTINUE TO
   SERVE TWO SUPPORTIVE FUNCTIONS...
   1. ENHANCE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW AND
   2. ADVECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER-PW AIR UPSLOPE.
   LATTER PROCESS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN FAVORABLE BUOYANCY WITH
   MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS YIELDING 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS THIS
   REGION.  MLCAPE SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNSET...BUT GRADUALLY...SUCH
   THAT FORCED ASCENT WITH ANY COLD POOLS MAY MAINTAIN QLCS MOVING OUT
   OF MTNS.  MEANWHILE...MORE DISCRETE CELLS IN NERN CO SHOULD CONTINUE
   TO POSE RISK OF SVR AMIDST 35-40 KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES AND
   SIMILAR CAPE AS FARTHER N...UNTIL ENCOUNTERING RELATIVELY STABLE
   OUTFLOW AIR NOW COMMON TO PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/NERN CO SW THROUGH S OF
   AKO.

   ..EDWARDS.. 06/22/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   39540421 40770496 41770615 42380578 43190593 43450603
               43310482 42980395 42590302 41840257 41050254 40450279
               39610341 39540421 

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Page last modified: June 23, 2014
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