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Mesoscale Discussion 1125
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1125
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0348 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

   Areas affected...Eastern LA...Southeast AR...MS...AL...Western GA

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 364...

   Valid 222048Z - 222215Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 364 continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for a tornado or two and locally damaging wind
   gusts continues in and near WW 364. Short-term trends will be
   monitored closely with regard to the need for additional watches to
   the north or east.

   DISCUSSION...The most active convection across WW 364 continues to
   cover the western and eastern third of the watch area, with a local
   minimum over much of MS into western AL. To the west across
   northeast LA/southeast AR into western MS, multiple arcing bands of
   convection have developed. This more linear configuration will
   support a threat of locally damaging winds, especially given
   relatively strong heating and some potential for transport of strong
   southerly momentum to the surface, while the linear mode is somewhat
   less favorable for a tornado threat. These convective bands will
   eventually move into portions of northern MS not currently in WW
   364. Short-term trends will be monitored for the need of a new watch
   to cover this threat. 

   On the eastern side of the watch, the strongest convection has
   shifted to eastern AL, with strong convection also developing over
   western GA. Convection remains somewhat more cellular in nature
   across this area, and the threat of a tornado or two remains,
   especially near any precipitation-enhanced surface boundaries. The
   threat near a more well-defined surface boundary across north GA was
   discussed in previous MCD 1124. Short-term trends will be closely
   monitored across portions of west and north GA with regard to the
   need for watch issuance. 

   A local minimum in convection persists across the central portion of
   WW 364 across much of MS into western AL. Despite strong heating in
   this area, weak low-level convergence and entrainment of dry air
   aloft has likely limited convective intensity thus far. It is
   unclear whether robust redevelopment will occur in this area, but a
   conditional risk for a brief tornado or two and isolated damaging
   wind will exist with any deep convection that can persist later this

   ..Dean/Guyer.. 06/22/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   29909162 33519150 34129098 34268552 33648539 33348406
               31288466 31028603 30978766 30318927 29909162 

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