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Mesoscale Discussion 1125
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1125
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0734 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO...FAR W-CNTRL IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 230034Z - 230130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTM CLUSTER CAPABLE OF DMGG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND
   POSSIBLY A TORNADO IS MOVING SWD INTO NRN MO. A NEW WW IS BEING
   CONSIDERED ACROSS PARTS OF NRN MO AND FAR W-CNTRL IL.

   DISCUSSION...TSTM CLUSTER CROSSING THE IA/MO BORDER CONTINUES TO
   PROPAGATE S-SEWD...WITH SHORT-TERM TRENDS SUGGESTING LARGE
   HAIL...DMGG WIND GUSTS..AND A TORNADO THREAT POSSIBLE. CINH
   INCREASES WITH SWD EXTENT DOWNSHEAR INTO NRN MO WITH WARM
   TEMPERATURES IN THE 2-3 KM LAYER...WHICH MAKES IT UNCERTAIN HOW FAR
   SWD CURRENT INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED. HOWEVER...STEEP EML
   COUPLED WITH RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE MORE THAN
   SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR A CONTINUED SVR THREAT IN THE NEAR-TERM
   OUTSIDE OF TORNADO WATCH 335...AND A NEW WW MAY NEED TO BE
   CONSIDERED ACROSS NRN MO AND FAR W-CNTRL IL.

   ..ROGERS/CARBIN.. 06/23/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   40109041 39629071 39399156 39539308 39729362 40359381
               40639343 40639225 40499078 40109041 

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Page last modified: June 23, 2015
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