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Mesoscale Discussion 1126
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1126
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0354 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of western/central KS into south-central

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 222054Z - 222330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds may
   occur with thunderstorms forming along a cold front over the next
   several hours. Watch issuance is possible.

   DISCUSSION...Strong daytime heating has encouraged surface
   temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 90s across
   western/central KS into south-central NE as of 2045Z. A weak cold
   front draped from northeast to southwest across this region will
   provide a focus for low-level convergence and possible convective
   development over the next few hours. 20Z RAP Mesoanalysis shows CIN
   eroding from west to east along the front, and recent visible
   satellite imagery shows several attempts at initiation across
   southwestern KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates emanating from the
   higher terrain of western/central CO have overspread this region,
   and combined with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 60s are
   contributing to generally 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE.

   The strongest mid-level winds will likely remain a bit to the north
   of western/central KS and south-central NE, but a veering wind
   profile with height should support 35-40 kt of effective bulk shear
   through the early evening. It is not entirely clear how much
   convection will form along the front late this afternoon, but any
   thunderstorm that does form will pose an isolated threat for large
   hail and strong/damaging winds. In addition, ongoing convection
   across eastern CO may also contain an isolated severe risk as it
   moves into western KS over the next several hours. Radar and
   observational trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance
   through 23Z.

   ..Gleason/Guyer.. 06/22/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   38810193 38740112 38780042 39209985 40299924 40879862
               41019821 40889755 40199742 39339762 38659842 37639985
               37130082 37140193 37970196 38810193 

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