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Mesoscale Discussion 1126
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1126
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1119 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...TEXAS PANHANDLE/NW TEXAS AND WRN OKLAHOMA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 349...

   VALID 230419Z - 230545Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 349
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS CONTINUES WITH SOUTHWARD
   PROPAGATING CONVECTION...AND COULD STILL INCREASE FURTHER ACROSS THE
   REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS.  A
   NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED SOUTH OF WW 349 WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

   DISCUSSION...VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ALONG
   CONGEALING SOUTHEASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD ADVANCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
   ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  STRONGEST STORMS HAVE GENERALLY BECOME
   FOCUSED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...ON
   THE NOSE OF A NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
   /30-40 KT/ ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  GIVEN THE RESIDUAL
   BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY PRESENT AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY...IT
   APPEARS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN STRENGTH AT LEAST THROUGH THE 06-08Z
   DIURNAL PEAK IN LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSITY.  THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO FOCUS
   THE STRONGEST STORMS SOUTH OF PAMPA THROUGH THE CHILDRESS
   AREA...WHERE ACCELERATION OF FORWARD PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION
   APPEARS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...ACCOMPANIED BY
   THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

   ..KERR.. 06/23/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   35230314 36090268 36240149 37150020 37709959 37289848
               36039768 35369852 34479853 33730025 33790223 35230314 

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Page last modified: June 23, 2014
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