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Mesoscale Discussion 1127
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1127
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0941 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO...FAR W-CNTRL IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 337...

   VALID 230241Z - 230345Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 337
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SVR THREAT HAS PRIMARILY TRANSITIONED TO DMGG WIND GUSTS
   ACROSS WW 337. TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THEY CONTINUE
   PROGRESSING SWD.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE ERN FLANK OF SMALL A MCS
   HAS WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER W-CNTRL IL...WHILE MORE GRADUAL
   WEAKENING IS OCCURRING INTO N-CNTRL MO WHERE DMGG WIND THREAT IS
   RELATIVELY HIGHER IN THE SHORT-TERM. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT
   WEAKENING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS AS THE LINE
   ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY CAPPED AND COOLING AIR MASS. THIS WOULD
   SUGGEST THAT THE SVR THREAT SHOULD NOT EXTEND TOO FAR S OF SVR TSTM
   WATCH...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED IN CASE A LOCAL SPATIAL
   EXTENSION IS NEEDED.

   ..ROGERS.. 06/23/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...

   LAT...LON   39539041 39049099 39179283 39619357 40089351 40239293
               40339167 40029036 39539041 

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Page last modified: June 23, 2015
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