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Mesoscale Discussion 1127
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MD 1127 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1127
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0659 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

   Areas of eastern Arkansas...western Tennessee...and
   northern Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 222359Z - 230100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Risk for isolated/brief tornadoes is evident in the
   northeast quadrant of the circulation surrounding T.D. Cindy. 
   Isolated nature of the risk thus far does not seem to warrant WW
   issuance.  We will continue to monitor environmental and convective
   trends across the area.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows convection -- including an
   arcing band of storms from central Arkansas into southwest Tennessee
   and northern Mississippi -- ongoing in the northeast quadrant of
   T.D. Cindy and shifting northward with time in conjunction with
   Cindy's advance.  
   Latest surface analysis and WSR-88D VWP data reveals rather
   pronounced backing in the low-level flow field within this area,
   with resulting 0-1 km shear supporting low-level rotation with a few
   convective cells.  

   With low-level flow surrounding Cindy progged to remain relatively
   strong, expect limited tornado risk to persist into the overnight
   hours.  However, areal coverage of the risk remains sufficiently
   limited such that the need for a new tornado watch north of WW 364
   remains questionable at this point, and may ultimately not be
   required.  However, any increase in coverage and/or intensity of
   convection northeast of the center of circulation would require more
   serious consideration for WW issuance.

   ..Goss/Hart.. 06/22/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   35868935 34868887 33878900 33719004 33769079 33339233
               34029267 35189220 35889117 35868935 

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