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Mesoscale Discussion 1128
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1128
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0749 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN OK...NW TX...FAR SW MO...FAR NW AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 319...320...

   VALID 040049Z - 040215Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   319...320...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SVR THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS SVR WATCHES 319 AND 320.
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT SOME ISOLATED LARGE
   HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST UPSCALE GROWTH INTO MORE OF
   A LINEAR CONVECTIVE HAS OCCURRED ACROSS CNTRL OK...WITH COLD POOLS
   FROM EARLIER CONVECTION AMALGAMATING AS THEY MOVE SEWD. MID-LEVEL
   FLOW IS WEAK /00Z OUN SOUNDING SAMPLED AROUND 20 KT AT 700 MB/ SO
   THE CHANCES OF A WELL-DEVELOPED...FAST-MOVING LINE ARE VERY
   LOW...ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS
   WHERE THE LINE MERGES WITH PRECEDING STORMS AND/OR PRECIP LOADING
   LEADS TO A STRONG DOWNDRAFT. INTERSECTING OUTFLOWS ALONG THE SRN END
   OF THE LINE WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...WITH A MORE
   EAST-WEST ORIENTATION ANTICIPATED. FORWARD SPEED OF THE LINE HERE
   WILL BE LESS THAN AREAS N AND E...PARTICULARLY AS THE LLJ
   INCREASES...BUT A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. SOME
   BACKBUILDING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE LINE...WITH THE
   RESULTING STORMS LASTING SEVERAL MORE HOURS. HOWEVER...THE
   CONVECTION UPSTREAM OVER NW TX MAKES THIS SCENARIO UNLIKELY WITH
   TSTMS EXPECTED TO WANE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

   FARTHER S /ACROSS NW TX/...MORE CELLULAR CONVECTIVE
   CONTINUES...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE STORMS ARE OUTFLOW DOMINANT WITH AT
   LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
   THAT WOULD THEN LIKELY TRACK SEWD TOWARDS THE METROPLEX. DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATE LARGE HAIL IS
   POSSIBLE.

   ..MOSIER.. 07/04/2016


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   36679767 37189641 37139403 35729437 33359608 32219915
               32170148 32610172 35229883 36679767 

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Page last modified: July 04, 2016
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