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Mesoscale Discussion 1128
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1128
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0614 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 231114Z - 231215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LOCALLY AND GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS /UP TO AROUND
   40 KT/ REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
   NORTHWEST TX.  THIS THREAT IS GREATEST ACROSS THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH
   METRO AREA BETWEEN 11-1230Z...BUT A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
   IS NOT ANTICIPATED.  NEW WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.  MEANWHILE...THE
   OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WW 350 WILL
   CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...SUCH THAT THIS WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN EARLY MORNING MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED THE
   LEADING EDGE OF THE SRN PLAINS MCS CONTINUING DISCRETE PROPAGATION
   TO THE S/SE...WITH THE RELATIVELY FASTEST MOTION OCCURRING OVER
   NORTH CENTRAL TX AT 35-40 KT.  SATELLITE IR IMAGERY INDICATED AN
   OVERALL CLOUD TOP WARMING UNDERWAY...SUGGESTING A WEAKENING TREND IN
   THE STRENGTH OF THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.  THE STRONGEST OBSERVED WIND
   GUST ATTENDANT TO THE NORTH CENTRAL TX PORTION OF THE MCS WAS 37 KT
   AT KDTO AT 1103Z.  GIVEN THE SEWD MOVEMENT UP TO 40 KT TOWARD THE
   DFW METRO...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KT WILL BE
   POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL WEAKENING TRENDS IN THIS MCS SUGGEST A
   WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS UNLIKELY THIS MORNING.

   ..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 06/23/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   33779705 33849668 33239634 32569667 32259749 32279884
               32460037 32700138 33110103 33220070 33019932 33209863
               33779705 

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Page last modified: June 23, 2014
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