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Mesoscale Discussion 1129
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1129
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0143 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN OH

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 230643Z - 230845Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A BAND OF STORMS...CURRENTLY LOCATED IN SOUTHEAST LOWER
   MI...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE ESE AT 40-45 KT EXITING THIS
   PORTION OF WW 338 BY 07Z...AND MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF OH
   COUNTIES /ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE/ BETWEEN 07-08Z.  THERE
   REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF THESE STORMS
   AFTER THEY CROSS LAKE ERIE...BUT A WW IS BEING CONSIDERED IF
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS SUGGEST STORM INTENSITIES ARE NOT DIMINISHING.

   DISCUSSION...AT 0620Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORT BAND OF
   STORMS EXTENDING FROM FAR SOUTHWEST ONTARIO INTO FAR SOUTHEAST LOWER
   MI WITH THIS ACTIVITY COMPRISED OF A RECENT MERGER OF COLD POOL
   ENHANCED STORMS WITH THE ACTIVITY TRACKING TO THE ESE AT 40-45 KT. 
   AT THIS SPEED...DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN A THREAT PRIOR TO THESE STORMS
   EXITING WW 338 AT 07Z.  

   MOST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THIS CURRENT LINE OF STORMS
   MOVES ACROSS LAKE ERIE WITH SOME WEAKENING TREND.  THE DOWNSTREAM
   ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NRN OHIO REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE BENEATH THE
   ERN EXTENT OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.  THIS COMBINED WITH SOME
   WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA AND CONTINUED HEIGHT FALLS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD
   SUSTAIN STORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO NORTHERN OH.  THE DEGREE OF
   NEAR-SURFACE STABILIZATION IS MORE UNCERTAIN WHICH AFFECTS THE
   CONFIDENCE IN HOW INTENSE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AS IT MOVES TO THE
   ESE.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SUGGEST SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION IS
   WEAK...AND COULD SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS REACHING THE
   SURFACE.  THIS POTENTIAL IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY A BAND OF STRONG WLY
   WINDS /50 KT/ BETWEEN 1-3 KM PER KIWX VAD/ SPREADING EWD AND
   POTENTIALLY REACHING THE SURFACE WITHIN ANY STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS.

   ..PETERS/MEAD.. 06/23/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...

   LAT...LON   41418453 41938346 42258257 42128148 41828087 41428099
               41108130 40948211 40918269 40938348 41118402 41418453 

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Page last modified: June 23, 2015
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