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Mesoscale Discussion 1130
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1130
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1054 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

   Areas affected...Middle TN...Northeast MS...Central/northern AL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 231554Z - 231730Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A gradual increase in the severe threat is expected late
   this morning into the afternoon. A few tornadoes and isolated
   damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats. Watch issuance is
   likely late this morning or early this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Convection has been increasing in intensity this
   morning, along the leading edge of the broader precipitation shield
   associated with TC Cindy. The environment ahead this convection is
   characterized by very moist/tropical profiles, with poor lapse rates
   but favorable wind profiles for supercells and other organized storm
   structures. As continued heating and modest destabilization occurs
   downstream, the severe threat is expected to increase. Recent CAM
   guidance is suggestive of a mixed-mode threat, with some tornado
   threat resulting from mini-supercell development, while a threat of
   damaging wind gusts will increase with larger-scale convective line
   segments. 

   In a relative sense, the tornado threat will likely be greatest
   across the northern portion of the MCD area, where backed low-level
   flow will increase low-level shear/SRH, while the wind threat may be
   maximized further south, where low-level flow remains strong but
   vertical profiles would tend to favor line segments. One or more
   watches are likely late this morning or early this afternoon to
   cover these threats.

   ..Dean/Guyer.. 06/23/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   32738981 34308877 34918835 35978756 36608692 36558519
               35538531 34518597 32908682 32638729 32518820 32488932
               32738981 

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Page last modified: June 23, 2017
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