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Mesoscale Discussion 1130
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1130
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0324 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN AND NORTHERN NY/FAR NORTHERN PA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 230824Z - 230930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN INTO PARTS OF
   NORTHERN NY...WITH SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS EAST OF
   THE WW 339 INTO FAR NRN PA.  THESE AREAS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
   POTENTIAL NEED FOR A SEVERE TSTM WATCH...IF CONVECTION SHOWS SIGNS
   OF INCREASING INTENSITY.

   DISCUSSION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED INSTABILITY ACROSS FAR WRN
   NY INCLUDING THE BUFFALO METRO AREA AND TO THE EAST OF WW 339 ACROSS
   NORTHERN PA WAS CURRENTLY MARGINAL /MUCAPE 500-1000 J PER KG/. 
   HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG DEEP-LAYER WLY WINDS WITH WIND SPEEDS AT 50
   KT LOCATED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE PER KBUF VAD...AN ISOLATED SEVERE
   WIND GUST THREAT EXISTS INTO WRN NY THROUGH 09-10Z.  SIMILARLY...A
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONGER AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD REACH
   FAR NRN PA /EAST OF WW 339/ AS A FAST-MOVING BOW ADVANCES INLAND OF
   LAKE ERIE.  STORMS WERE ALSO MOVING FROM LAKE ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN
   NY...THOUGH A MORE STABLE AIR MASS WITH NORTHERN EXTENT SUGGESTS
   THIS ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED.  

   TSTMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY AND SPREADING ACROSS NRN PA AND MUCH OF NY
   INTO THE MORNING...GIVEN AN INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AHEAD OF
   THE GREAT LAKES/NRN ONTARIO SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  STRENGTHENING SWLY
   LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN LEE OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL SUPPORT
   DESTABILIZATION FROM S-N...SUCH THAT LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS
   COULD BECOME A GREATER THREAT FROM NRN PA THROUGH WRN AND NRN NY. 
   IF CONVECTIVE TRENDS SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITIES/SEVERE
   WEATHER THREAT...THEN A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WOULD NEED TO BE
   CONSIDERED FOR PARTS OR ALL OF THIS DISCUSSION AREA.

   ..PETERS/MEAD.. 06/23/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...CLE...

   LAT...LON   42267972 42717881 43047871 43237849 43347716 43647611
               44277558 44077465 43607422 42697492 42027657 41827715
               41677830 41677962 42267972 

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Page last modified: June 23, 2015
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