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Mesoscale Discussion 1131
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1131
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0430 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST OH/NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PA/WESTERN AND
   SOUTHERN TIER OF NY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 339...

   VALID 230930Z - 231030Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 339
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY
   APPROACHING NORTH-CENTRAL OH FROM SOUTHWEST LAKE ERIE WILL POSE A
   THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS IT MOVES INLAND EARLY
   THIS MORNING.  THIS STORM AND OTHERS THAT MAY FORM HAS RESULTED IN
   COLLABORATION WITH WFO-CLE TO EXPAND WW 339 SPATIALLY AND
   TEMPORALLY.  MEANWHILE...SOME STORM INTENSIFICATION IS UNDERWAY
   ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOW FROM NORTHEAST OH THROUGH
   NORTHWEST PA TO FAR WEST NY SUGGESTING A DOWNSTREAM POTENTIAL SEVERE
   WEATHER THREAT COULD WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE TSTM WATCH
   ACROSS PARTS OF NRN PA AND THE SOUTHERN TIER NY COUNTIES.

   DISCUSSION...THE NORTHEAST EXTENT OF THE BOW...NOW MOVING THROUGH
   NORTHWEST PA AND ADJACENT FAR WESTERN NY /ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA AND
   CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES/ COULD POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO
   REACH THE SURFACE AS THIS BOW MOVES TO THE EAST AT 50 KT.  A
   DESCENDING AND STRENGTHENING REAR-INFLOW JET /WLY AT 50-60 KT
   BETWEEN 2-5 KM AGL PER CLE VAD/ SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
   INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS THE BOW HAS CONTINUED TO
   MAINTAIN A FAST EASTWARD MOTION SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WINDS.  THIS
   POTENTIAL THREAT WOULD BE FURTHER SUPPORTED BY EXPECTED CONTINUATION
   OF ONGOING DESTABILIZATION AS DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AND WIND FIELDS
   STRENGTHEN INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

   ..PETERS/MEAD.. 06/23/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

   LAT...LON   41207836 40947996 40968100 40948172 40988241 41308258
               41528224 42028109 42397953 42617882 42657707 41857689
               41397712 41207836 

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Page last modified: June 23, 2015
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