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Mesoscale Discussion 1131
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MD 1131 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1131
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1215 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

   Areas affected...Northern KY...Southern/eastern OH...Western
   WV...Western PA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 231715Z - 231915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A gradual increase in the threat for damaging wind gusts
   and perhaps a tornado or two is expected this afternoon. Watch
   issuance is possible.

   DISCUSSION...A gradual increase in the intensity and coverage of
   convection has been noted across portions of southern OH, in advance
   of a large precipitation shield (with embedded convection) further
   to the northwest. While midlevel lapse rates are poor, given the
   influence of the decaying tropical system to the southwest, modest
   heating within a very moist environment has resulted in moderate
   destabilization, with SBCAPE rising into the 1000-1500 J/kg range
   where temperatures have warmed into the low 80s F. Further
   intensification is possible, both with the more discrete activity
   across southern OH and northern KY, and within the larger convective
   plume across central/northern OH as that moves eastward. 

   With strong deep-layer southwesterly flow over the region, effective
   shear has increased into the 40-50 kt range, which is more than
   sufficient for some organized storm structures. With unidirectional
   wind profiles in place, damaging wind gusts are expected to the
   primary threat, though low-level shear is sufficient for a tornado
   or two with any semi-discrete supercells that can evolve. Watch
   issuance is possible later this afternoon to cover this threat.

   ..Dean/Guyer.. 06/23/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   38828510 39318455 39858324 40268227 40668151 41028071
               41138003 40567974 40037995 39388077 38778161 38428240
               38558365 38728470 38798507 38828510 

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