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Mesoscale Discussion 1132
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1132
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0739 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PA INTO PART OF SOUTHEAST NY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 340...

   VALID 231239Z - 231415Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 340
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
   SOUTHEAST NY /INTO DELAWARE AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES NY/ AND NORTHEAST
   PA ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS. 
   MEANWHILE...A THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
   STORMS MOVING EWD FROM WRN INTO CENTRAL PA THROUGH 15Z.

   DISCUSSION...AT 1220Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED THE LEAD
   STORMS ATTENDANT TO THE NRN PA/SRN NY FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS HAD
   EXITED WW 340...AND ALTHOUGH IT HAD BEEN INDICATING A WEAKENING
   TREND PRIOR TO EXITING THIS WATCH...RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST SOME
   INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITIES.  THE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT WILL
   CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THAT COULD SUPPORT A LOCALLY STRONG WIND
   GUST.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FAST EWD MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS AT
   55-60 KT...THE COUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY NOT OCCUR SOON
   ENOUGH TO ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS PRIOR TO THE
   STORMS MOVING INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY.

   MEANWHILE...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH MAINLY A THREAT FOR
   HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z
   ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF WW 340 /IN CENTRAL PA/ AS STORMS
   CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER ERN OH/WRN PA AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL PA THIS
   MORNING.  MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG BULK SHEAR ARE SUPPORTIVE
   FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

   ..PETERS/MEAD.. 06/23/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...PBZ...

   LAT...LON   41447882 41457729 41797635 42397605 42497575 42437472
               42167451 41637447 41167500 40907597 40707719 40707859
               40717888 41447882 

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Page last modified: June 23, 2015
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