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Mesoscale Discussion 1132
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1132
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0515 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN INDIANA...SRN LOWER MI...FAR NWRN OH

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 232215Z - 232315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
   EVENING. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE
   POSSIBLE. THE NEED FOR WW ISSUANCE IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE LIMITED
   MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...AT 2200Z...STRONG TSTMS WERE ONGOING FROM NRN INDIANA
   INTO SRN LOWER MI...WITH THE MOST ORGANIZED ACTIVITY CONCENTRATED NW
   OF LINE FROM LAFAYETTE INDIANA TO KALAMAZOO MI AND OTHER LESS
   ORGANIZED STORMS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS NERN INDIANA. DESPITE
   GENERALLY POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING IN
   CONJUNCTION WITH RICH TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE /PW VALUES AROUND
   1.7-1.8 IN/ HAS RESULTED IN MODEST DESTABILIZATION...WITH MLCAPES OF
   AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG NOTED IN OBJECTIVE MESOANALYSIS. 

   WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS MODEST AT BEST...SFC WINDS HAVE LOCALLY
   BACKED TO SELY ACROSS NRN INDIANA/SRN LOWER MI...WHICH HAS RESULTED
   IN SLIGHTLY ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AS NOTED IN THE IWX VWP.
   AIDED BY THIS LOCALLY ENHANCED SRH...A COUPLE OF SHORT-LIVED
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES HAVE BEEN NOTED IN THE LAST HOUR. SEVERAL
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE NOTED ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH WITH HIGH PW
   IN PLACE...OUTFLOW HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY STABILIZED THE AIRMASS THUS
   FAR. THE LACK OF COLDER/MORE STABLE OUTFLOW FAVORS THE POTENTIAL FOR
   STORM-BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS TO PRODUCE A BRIEF TORNADO OVER THE NEXT
   1-2 HRS WITH ANY SUSTAINED DISCRETE CELL. OTHERWISE...LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY AHEAD OF THE LINE
   SEGMENT CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS SWRN LOWER MI. 

   GIVEN THE GENERALLY LIMITED MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT...THE
   NEED FOR WW ISSUANCE IS UNCERTAIN IN THIS AREA...THOUGH TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..DEAN/KERR.. 06/23/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   40908681 41388685 41738675 42188639 42588546 42628484
               42668431 42578402 42368376 42058373 41778395 41638416
               41268470 40808495 40548560 40738645 40908681 

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Page last modified: June 23, 2014
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