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Mesoscale Discussion 1132
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MD 1132 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1132
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1222 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of far southern MO...eastern OK...and AR

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 231722Z - 231945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Convection across southeastern MO may gradually organize
   into a line of storms across northern AR/eastern OK over the next
   several hours. Strong to locally damaging winds should be the main
   threat with this activity, and watch issuance is possible this
   afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms is occurring along a cold
   front across southwestern MO as of 17Z. In addition to the low-level
   forcing of the front, at least the glancing influence of large-scale
   ascent associated with a shortwave trough over western/central KS
   will likely aid sustained convection across this region through the
   afternoon and early evening. A very moist low-level airmass is
   present across AR and far eastern MO based on the 12Z sounding from
   LZK and latest surface observations indicating dewpoints remain in
   the low to mid 70s. Surface temperatures have already warmed into
   the 80s downstream of ongoing convection. Additional diurnal heating
   and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates (generally 6.5-7.5 C/km
   in the 700-500 mb layer) overspreading eastern OK into AR should
   further increase instability early this afternoon, with MLCAPE
   values of 2000-3000 J/kg becoming common through peak heating.

   Mid-level winds will likely remain somewhat modest, as stronger flow
   aloft remains displaced to the north. But, around 25-30 kt of
   northwesterly flow around 500 mb should support at least a
   semi-organized line of thunderstorms moving southeastward across
   eastern OK into AR this afternoon and early evening. Additional
   storms may form along the cold front in eastern OK. Given the linear
   mode expected, strong to damaging winds would likely be the main
   threat, although marginally severe hail could also occur with the
   strongest cores embedded within the line. The lack of even stronger
   mid-level winds and related shear may temper the overall severe
   threat somewhat, but recent convection-allowing model guidance is
   generally consistent with the scenario described above. Watch
   issuance will be possible this afternoon based on short-term
   observational and radar trends.

   ..Gleason/Guyer.. 06/23/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33789405 33949501 34129578 35279605 36039582 36629468
               36869399 36939295 36769218 36359158 35829137 34139140
               33769223 33689298 33789405 

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Page last modified: June 23, 2017
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