Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1133
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1133 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1133
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0517 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN AND E-CENTRAL NM...WRN PANHANDLES OF
   TX/OK.

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 232217Z - 240015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING OFF HIGHER TERRAIN
   OF CENTRAL-NERN NM MAY POSE SVR WIND/HAIL THREAT THROUGH EARLY
   EVENING AS THEY CROSS MESA/CAPROCK COUNTRY AND HIGH PLAINS TO THEIR
   E AND SE.  AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

   DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE FORMED ALONG RTN MESA AND
   I-25 CORRIDOR IN NERN NM...SWWD TOWARD CQC THEN SWD TOWARD SRR. 
   DOWNSHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY NWLY EFFECTIVE-SHEAR
   VECTORS ROUGHLY 25-35 KT IN MAGNITUDE--SUPPORTING PRIMARILY
   MULTICELLULAR MODE...THOUGH LOCAL/TRANSIENT SUPERCELL MORPHOLOGIES
   ARE POSSIBLE.  THERMODYNAMICALLY...DEW POINTS HAVE MIXED INTO UPPER
   30S TO MID 40S F ACROSS MUCH OF PROXIMAL INFLOW REGION...BUT WILL
   INCREASE INTO MID-UPPER 50S BOTH WITH EWD EXTENT AND WITH TIME AS
   RICHER UPSTREAM BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE IN TX/OK PANHANDLE ADVECTS
   INTO REGION.  LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE LIMITING MLCAPE TO
   AROUND 800-1500 J/KG ATTM BASED ON MODIFIED MODEL-FCST
   SOUNDINGS...BUT WITH WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER SUITABLE FOR 
   1. STG/DAMAGING GUSTS VIA EVAPORATIVELY AIDED ACCELERATIONS AND
   2. MAINTENANCE OF ANY HAIL GENERATED ALOFT THROUGH THAT LAYER TO
   SFC. 
   LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE LACK OF MORE ROBUST CAPE/SHEAR...STORM
   COVERAGE...AND POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW DOMINANCE...EACH CASTING
   UNCERTAINTIES ON SPATIAL EXTENT AND LONGEVITY OF SVR THREAT. 

   REF WW 351 AND SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1131 FOR LATEST THOUGHTS ON
   AREAS FARTHER N AND S...ACROSS CO AND SERN NM RESPECTIVELY.

   ..EDWARDS/KERR.. 06/23/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AMA...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   34620565 35340554 35670491 36140452 36600444 36650406
               36870376 36990376 36970202 36470205 35470262 34640354
               34620565 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 24, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities