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Mesoscale Discussion 1133
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1133
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1239 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

   Areas affected...Central and eastern KY

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 231739Z - 231945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Some increase in the threat for damaging wind gusts and a
   tornado or two is expected this afternoon. Watch issuance is

   DISCUSSION...Convection has thus far been slow to increase across
   much of KY, but continued heating/destabilization, along with the
   increasing influence of remnant TC Cindy, will result in an increase
   in the threat for organized convection this afternoon. SBCAPE of
   1000-1500 J/kg, combined with effective shear of 40-50 kts, will
   result in the potential for organized storm structures, with both
   small supercells and larger-scale line segments possible as
   convection evolves with time. While weak midlevel lapse rates will
   tend to limit updraft intensity, moderate-to-strong southwesterly
   flow through a deep layer will support a threat of damaging winds.
   Low-level shear is sufficient for a tornado or two, especially in
   closer proximity to the surface circulation where low-level winds
   are locally backed. Watch issuance is possible later this afternoon
   to cover this threat.

   ..Dean/Guyer.. 06/23/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36708652 37318640 37898595 38658513 38598460 38468315
               38378254 37368294 36608326 36668554 36708652 

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