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Mesoscale Discussion 1134
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MD 1134 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1134
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0102 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of NY...VT...NH...ME...and MA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 231802Z - 232030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to damaging winds and perhaps some hail
   may occur with strong to severe thunderstorms through the early
   evening. The overall severe weather threat will probably remain too
   marginal to warrant watch issuance, although radar trends will
   continue to be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Around 40-55 kt of mid-level southwesterly flow is
   present this afternoon across much of New England and vicinity as
   large-scale upper troughing approaches this region from the west.
   Breaks in the cloud cover have allowed surface temperatures to
   generally warm into the upper 70s to mid 80s away from the coast,
   and a moist low-level airmass is present, with surface dewpoints in
   the mid 60s to around 70. A warm front at the surface is located
   from southern Quebec across NH and western ME as of 18Z, and this
   front should make some northward progress into central/eastern ME
   through the remainder of the afternoon. Although mid-level lapse
   rates remain generally poor across this region per 12Z soundings
   from GYX/ALB, 250-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is present as of 18Z owing to
   the previously mentioned diurnal heating and moist low-level

   A veering/strengthening wind profile with height will support 35-45
   kt of effective bulk shear, which should encourage some updraft
   organization. Steep low-level lapse rates and a well mixed boundary
   layer will encourage efficient momentum transfer of stronger
   thunderstorm downdraft winds to the surface, and locally damaging
   surface winds appear to be the main threat with this activity. Some
   hail may also occur, but poor mid-level lapse rates will likely
   limit a more substantial severe hail threat. Present indications are
   for the overall severe threat to remain isolated through peak
   heating, which suggests watch issuance will probably not be needed.

   ..Gleason/Guyer.. 06/23/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   43447825 43717792 43647681 44177637 44567588 45107490
               45107168 45347154 45477102 45607066 45577013 45196977
               44037053 43347073 42647053 42277081 42147137 42077283
               42087419 42567612 42647844 43447825 

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