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Mesoscale Discussion 1134
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1134
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0928 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN/EASTERN OH AND WESTERN PA TO PORTIONS OF
   KY/WV/MD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 231428Z - 231630Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND AND SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO
   STEADILY INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN PA AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN OH INTO
   PORTIONS OF WV/NORTHEAST KY AND FAR WESTERN MD. A SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE HOUR FOR AT LEAST
   PORTIONS OF THIS REGION.

   DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO
   INTENSIFY FROM CENTRAL OH INTO WESTERN PA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
   WHILE SOME CLOUD COVER PRECEDES THE FRONT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   CONTINUES TO STEADILY WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S F AND A MOIST AIR MASS
   IS IN PLACE WITH NEAR 70 F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. REGIONAL 12Z OBSERVED
   SOUNDINGS FROM PITTSBURGH AND WILMINGTON OH REFLECT VERY STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY STRONG MID-LEVEL WESTERLY
   WINDS...WITH 50+ KT WINDS EVIDENT AROUND 3 KM AGL PER THE 12Z
   PITTSBURGH RAOB. ADDITIONAL HEATING WILL QUICKLY ERODE
   INHIBITION...WITH A RELATED INCREASE/INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS
   LIKELY INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHILE MULTICELLS MAY BE
   DOMINANT...SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR/BUOYANCY COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW
   SPLITTING SUPERCELLS WITH A SEVERE HAIL RISK ASIDE FROM DAMAGING
   WINDS.

   ..GUYER/GOSS.. 06/23/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...

   LAT...LON   39678333 40907986 40527892 39247914 38598010 38068320
               39678333 

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Page last modified: June 23, 2015
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