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Mesoscale Discussion 1134
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1134
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0829 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN CO...EXTREME SERN WY...WRN KS...SWRN
   NEB AND SRN NEB PANHANDLE.

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 351...

   VALID 240129Z - 240330Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 351
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...CONTINUE VALID PORTIONS WW.  EL PASO AND PUEBLO COUNTIES
   HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM WW PER COORD W/WFO PUX.  ADDITIONAL PORTIONS
   WW MAY BE CLEARED...PRIMARILY FROM W-E AS OUTFLOW STABILIZES
   BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS AND PRECLUDES SUBSTANTIAL SVR THREAT FROM
   RE-DEVELOPING.  AREAS E OF WW OVER NEB WILL BE MONITORED FOR
   ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL GIVEN SUFFICIENT UPSCALE GROWTH/PROPAGATION
   IN CO.  HOWEVER ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THAT AREA ATTM.

   DISCUSSION...INITIAL DEVELOPMENT MOVING OFF MTNS/FOOTHILLS OF CO/WY
   LARGELY HAS WEAKENED.  HOWEVER...BOTH OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARIES ARE SERVING AS FOCI FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ADDITIONAL
   STG-SVR TSTMS THAT HAVE FORMED OVER SERN WY AND NRN CO...IN CORRIDOR
   OF FAVORABLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.  SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MOIST
   AXIS ROUGHLY ORIENTED E-W ALONG MCK-FNL LINE...SOON TO BE CLEAVED BY
   OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION OVER NERN CO INVOF AKO. 
   PRECONVECTIVE/NON-OUTFLOW AIR NEAR THAT AXIS IS CHARACTERIZED BY
   1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE...ATOP WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS.  THOSE
   FACTORS...AMIDST 45-55-KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES...WILL SUPPORT
   SVR WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL WITH REMAINING SFC-BASED TSTMS OVER THIS
   REGION.  SOME TSTM CLUSTERING AND AGGREGATION OF COLD POOLS ALSO IS
   POSSIBLE WITH CORRESPONDING UPSCALE EXPANSION OF AT LEAST
   SHORT-FUSED WIND POTENTIAL.  TSTMS DEVELOPING ATOP OUTFLOW MAY
   PRODUCE HAIL AS WELL...BUT ANY SVR THREAT WITH THOSE SHOULD BE MORE
   TRANSIENT AND MRGL.  

   OVERALL SVR THREAT WILL BE SHUNTED EWD AND PERHAPS SEWD TOWARD WRN
   KS AS OUTFLOW POOLS EXPAND UPSHEAR...AND AS SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
   INCREASES THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO BOUNDARY-LAYER DECOUPLING. 
   BOTH LLJ AND BUOYANCY WILL BE WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS
   NIGHTS...HOWEVER...GIVEN PASSAGE OF MID-UPPER TROUGH E OF AREA AND
   REDUCTION OF THETAE BY MAJOR MCS ACTIVITY LAST NIGHT.

   ..EDWARDS.. 06/24/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   37040290 37960370 39260390 40060472 40970555 41320587
               41570528 41220479 41270269 41120236 40710180 40040137
               38930135 38150187 37100217 37040290 

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Page last modified: June 24, 2014
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