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Mesoscale Discussion 1135
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1135
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0235 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern PA...NJ...and far northern DE

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 231935Z - 232130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated damaging wind threat may develop from central
   into eastern PA and NJ/DE late this afternoon. Watch issuance is
   possible.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered convection has formed this afternoon across
   western/central PA along a differential heating boundary and surface
   trough, moving eastward around 35-40 kt. Visible satellite imagery
   shows at least partial clearing across eastern PA into NJ and far
   northern DE downstream of ongoing thunderstorms. Even though
   mid-level lapse rates will remain mostly poor across this region,
   daytime heating and a very moist low-level airmass (surface
   dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s) are contributing to MLCAPE
   of 500-1500 J/kg. Strong 40-50 kt mid-level winds and a
   strengthening low-level jet through this evening are supporting
   40-50 kt of effective bulk shear. Strong to locally damaging winds
   will probably be the main threat with any line segments/marginal
   supercells moving into this region from the west. In addition, with
   low-level winds generally veered to southwesterly and only modest
   additional veering with height, effective SRH will probably remain
   limited, but may be sufficient to support some updraft rotation and
   perhaps a tornado or two. Although not immediately likely, a watch
   may need to be considered in the next several hours pending latest
   radar trends.

   ..Gleason/Guyer.. 06/23/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...

   LAT...LON   39757598 41127616 41427540 41197441 40887423 40287435
               39717482 39757598 

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Page last modified: June 23, 2017
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