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Mesoscale Discussion 1135
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MD 1135 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1135
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0235 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern PA...NJ...and far northern DE

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 231935Z - 232130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated damaging wind threat may develop from central
   into eastern PA and NJ/DE late this afternoon. Watch issuance is

   DISCUSSION...Scattered convection has formed this afternoon across
   western/central PA along a differential heating boundary and surface
   trough, moving eastward around 35-40 kt. Visible satellite imagery
   shows at least partial clearing across eastern PA into NJ and far
   northern DE downstream of ongoing thunderstorms. Even though
   mid-level lapse rates will remain mostly poor across this region,
   daytime heating and a very moist low-level airmass (surface
   dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s) are contributing to MLCAPE
   of 500-1500 J/kg. Strong 40-50 kt mid-level winds and a
   strengthening low-level jet through this evening are supporting
   40-50 kt of effective bulk shear. Strong to locally damaging winds
   will probably be the main threat with any line segments/marginal
   supercells moving into this region from the west. In addition, with
   low-level winds generally veered to southwesterly and only modest
   additional veering with height, effective SRH will probably remain
   limited, but may be sufficient to support some updraft rotation and
   perhaps a tornado or two. Although not immediately likely, a watch
   may need to be considered in the next several hours pending latest
   radar trends.

   ..Gleason/Guyer.. 06/23/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   39757598 41127616 41427540 41197441 40887423 40287435
               39717482 39757598 

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