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Mesoscale Discussion 1135
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1135
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0935 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN NM...W TX PERMIAN BASIN TO
   TRANS-PECOS REGIONS.

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 240235Z - 240430Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SVR THREAT MAY INCREASE FOR 2-3 HOURS ACROSS THIS
   REGION...PERHAPS LONGER DEPENDING ON STORM-SCALE PROCESSES.  ATTM
   POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL FOR WW BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
   MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

   DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PRIMARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
   EARLIER MCS...EXTENDING NEAR BWD...BPG...30 N HOB LINE. SECOND
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OF HILL COUNTRY/EDWARDS PLATEAU ORIGIN WAS EVIDENT
   MOVING NWWD OUT OF TOM GREEN COUNTY TOWARD ERN PERMIAN BASIN REGION.
    FORMER BOUNDARY AND RELATED CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE/LIFT MAY FOCUS
   PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION NOW EXPANDING IN COVERAGE OVER SERN
   NM...WHERE 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED.  ENHANCED CORRIDOR OF
   STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW IS POSSIBLE SW OF BOUNDARY...RELATED TO
   20-25-KT/ESELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ABOVE SFC...SAMPLED BY MAF/SJT VWP. 
   THAT FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AND VEER WITH TIME THIS
   EVENING...AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DECOUPLE.  UPPER-AIR
   ANALYSES AND MODEL FCST FIELDS ALSO INDICATE INCREASING MID-UPPER
   WINDS AND DEEP SHEAR WITH SWD EXTENT...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR ANY
   SUSTAINED TSTMS THAT CAN ORGANIZE UPSCALE TO HAVE SVR THREAT WITH
   CORRESPONDING SPATIAL EXPANSION.  

   HOWEVER...COUNTER-EFFECT OF PRONOUNCED CAPPING...EVIDENT IN SFC
   MODIFICATIONS TO 00Z DRT/MAF RAOBS...INDICATES THAT SUBSTANTIAL
   FORCED ASCENT WILL BE NEEDED...VIA EITHER 
   1. INTERNAL/ROTATIONAL STORM DYNAMICS -- I.E. VERTICAL PRESSURE
   GRADIENT FORCE IN ANY SUPERCELL...
   2. MORE PROBABLY -- COLD-POOL AGGREGATION WITH CLUSTERED/BOWING
   CONVECTION.

   ..EDWARDS/KERR.. 06/24/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   31110564 31180540 31460530 31490502 31590472 31870440
               32370476 32900481 32970408 33430387 33340336 32110125
               31040207 30120380 29800457 30020469 30240469 30430488
               30620492 30630503 30730508 30930547 31110564 

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Page last modified: June 24, 2014
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