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Mesoscale Discussion 1135
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1135
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1040 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST NEB/FAR NORTHEAST KS TO EXTREME SOUTHWEST
   IA/NORTHWEST MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 231540Z - 231715Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...PERIODIC SEVERE HAIL MAY REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE
   LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEB/NORTHEAST KS
   TO EXTREME SOUTHWEST IA/NORTHWEST MO. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
   ANTICIPATED...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...ELEVATED ISOLATED STRONGER/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
   CONTINUE TO OCCUR NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST
   NEB BORDER AS OF 1530Z/1030AM CDT. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE AIDED
   BY WEAK WARM ADVECTION WITHIN AN ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE...WITH
   ELEVATED UPDRAFTS LIKELY ROOTED NEAR/ABOVE 850 MB. AS NOTED IN EARLY
   DAY OBSERVED SOUNDINGS...VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE
   CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR MAY REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
   SEVERE HAIL THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. CURRENT THINKING
   IS THAT THE OVERALL HAIL RISK SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
   ISOLATED/MARGINAL...SUCH THAT A WATCH ISSUANCE IS CURRENTLY THOUGHT
   TO BE UNLIKELY.

   ..GUYER/GOSS.. 06/23/2015


   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

   LAT...LON   39949845 40649853 40939625 40439478 39639498 39949845 

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Page last modified: June 23, 2015
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