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Mesoscale Discussion 1136
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1136
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1127 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN CO...WRN KS...SWRN NEB.

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 351...

   VALID 240427Z - 240530Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 351
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SVR CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING NEXT FEW
   HOURS...OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING...SUCH THAT
   REMAINDER WW MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 05Z. 
   ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...BROAD AREA OF MOSTLY DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS
   EVIDENT OVER NERN CO AND SEWD TO SWD ON EITHER SIDE OF KS/CO LINE. 
   AREA OF RELATIVELY CONVECTIVELY UNALTERED BOUNDARY-LAYER
   AIR...ARCHING FROM SRN PANHANDLE OF NEB ACROSS SWRN NEB TO WRN
   KS...MAY SUPPORT SPORADIC STG-SVR CONVECTION THROUGH ABOUT 07Z. 
   THIS REGIME IS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE 800-1300 J/KG AND 30-40 KT
   EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES...BASED ON MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST
   SOUNDINGS.  HOWEVER...OVERALL POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN
   RESPONSE TO
   1. INCREASING COVERAGE OF OUTFLOW AIR AND 
   2. DIABATIC SFC COOLING...REDUCING MLCAPE AND STRENGTHENING CINH IN
   REMAINING PRECONVECTIVE SECTOR.

   ..EDWARDS.. 06/24/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   37180209 38390216 39350303 39920352 40790480 41000346
               40900191 40450112 39120099 37200122 37180209 

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Page last modified: June 24, 2014
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