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Mesoscale Discussion 1136
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1136
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0315 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of central/southern NM into west TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 232015Z - 232245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A marginal wind/hail threat should persist through this
   evening. Due to the very isolated severe risk, watch issuance is not
   expected at this time.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have formed along a shallow cold
   front across southeastern NM into west TX this afternoon. Additional
   isolated convection may develop along the central mountain chain in
   NM within a forced upslope/easterly low-level flow regime. Modest
   northwesterly flow around 500 mb of 20-25 kt will likely act to
   limit updraft organization and overall storm motions. But, a
   strongly veering wind profile with height in the vicinity of the
   cold front per recent LBB VWP is supporting generally 30-40 kt of
   effective bulk shear. With steep mid-level lapse rates and MLCAPE of
   500-1500 J/kg present across this region, the strongest
   thunderstorms may pose a very isolated large hail risk, in addition
   to some threat for strong to locally damaging downdraft winds. Due
   to overall thunderstorm coverage expected to remain generally
   isolated, and marginal low/mid-level winds forecast to remain over
   this region through this evening, watch issuance is not anticipated.

   ..Gleason/Guyer.. 06/23/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   32960003 32160078 31940169 31840343 31820492 32330566
               32740589 34230615 35130608 36090584 36330551 36320496
               36020453 35740450 34980456 33960437 33550330 33440266
               33490088 33540003 32960003 

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