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Mesoscale Discussion 1137
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1137
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0146 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NY INTO CT/RI/MASS/VT/NH/MAINE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 341...

   VALID 231846Z - 232015Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 341
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
   EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP/INCREASE THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON FROM
   EASTERN NY INTO PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. AN ADDITIONAL/REPLACEMENT
   WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR AT LEAST
   PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

   DISCUSSION...IN THE WAKE OF EARLY DAY CONVECTION/CLOUD
   COVER...MODEST AIR MASS RECOVERY/DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES TO
   GRADUALLY OCCUR PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN NY INTO SOUTHERN/FAR
   WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS OF MID-AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH
   A RELATED INCREASE IN SHOWERS/SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NY
   AS OF 245 PM EDT/1845Z. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE/INTENSITY THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST
   GLANCING INFLUENCES OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
   QUEBEC. THIS INTENSIFICATION COULD INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO
   RISK...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF LOWER/MIDDLE TROPOSPHERIC
   WINDS...EVEN WITH A TENDENCY FOR LOW-LEVEL VEERING. THE
   EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD SPREAD OF MULTICELLS/EVOLVING LINEAR BANDS MAY
   ULTIMATELY BE THE MORE PREVALENT CONCERN AS STORMS INCREASE/SPREAD
   EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY/MID-EVENING HOURS.

   ..GUYER.. 06/23/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF...

   LAT...LON   41657519 43867532 44417382 43657194 43627059 41637079
               40487303 41657519 

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Page last modified: June 23, 2015
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