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Mesoscale Discussion 1138
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1138
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0205 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 231905Z - 232000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
   IN THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH DOWNBURSTS
   AND HAIL THE MOST LIKELY THREATS.  WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED
   FOR THIS ACTIVITY.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN INTENSITY
   OVER THE PAST 1-1.5 HOURS IN THE DISCUSSION AREA.  DOWNBURSTS
   APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS APPEAR THE BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS
   ACTIVITY AS STORMS HAVE FORMED IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY A
   WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS APPROACHING
   35F...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.  HAIL IS
   ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS GIVEN THE 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE
   ACROSS THE REGION.  INSTABILITY IS PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER WITH
   NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT SPATIAL THREAT OF ANY
   SEVERE WIND/HAIL.  GIVEN THE LIMITED BUOYANCY AND ISOLATED NATURE OF
   THE THREAT...A WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA.

   ..COOK/GOSS.. 06/23/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

   LAT...LON   48760450 48540572 47910686 47430760 46930799 46430818
               45940773 45470605 45380329 45950236 47080191 47880191
               48410203 48770306 48760364 48760450 

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Page last modified: June 23, 2015
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