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Mesoscale Discussion 1138
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MD 1138 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1138
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0332 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of southern/eastern OK...north TX...and
   far west-central AR

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 232032Z - 232230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated damaging wind and perhaps large hail threat
   may increase with thunderstorms developing along a cold front this
   afternoon. Watch issuance is possible.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms developing along a
   southward-moving cold front should increase in coverage over the
   next several hours as they encounter an increasingly moist and
   unstable airmass. Surface temperatures to the south of the front
   have mostly warmed into the low to mid 90s, and plentiful low-level
   moisture combined with at least modestly steep mid-level lapse rates
   have resulted in strong MLCAPE ranging from 2500-3500 J/kg. The main
   uncertainty regarding the overall severe threat across this region
   remains weak low and mid-level winds. Related effective bulk shear
   values of 20 kt or less will likely preclude a more organized
   damaging wind threat. However, at least isolated instances of
   marginally severe hail and strong/damaging winds will remain
   possible through this evening with pulse-severe-like convection
   along the front. At this time, the prospect for watch issuance
   remains unclear, and will largely depend on short-term
   radar/observational trends.

   ..Gleason/Guyer.. 06/23/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33769786 34289717 35369546 35739399 35469392 34949450
               34529453 33199452 32609621 32509749 32969783 33769786 

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