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Mesoscale Discussion 1138
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1138
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1253 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS INTO E CNTRL CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 241753Z - 242000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON
   WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND WIND.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL HAVE FORMED ACROSS
   NWRN KS NEAR AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH IS INTERFACING WITH A
   STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE S. WINDS VEER FROM SLY TO NWLY
   WITH HEIGHT...WITH SUFFICIENT HODOGRAPHS TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SHORT
   LIVED SEVERE CELLS. WITH TIME...CELLS COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE
   OUTFLOW DOMINATED AND GROW UPSCALE WITH MORE OF A WIND THREAT. IF
   THIS OCCURS...A WATCH WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.

   IN ADDITION...THE RELATIVELY LOW LCLS AS WELL AS WEAKLY VEERING
   LOW-LEVEL WINDS NEAR THE BOUNDARY COULD SUPPORT A BRIEF WEAK
   TORNADO.

   ..JEWELL/MEAD.. 06/24/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...GLD...PUB...

   LAT...LON   37350040 37860166 38400235 38920268 39230261 39340197
               39210126 38789964 38589895 38139867 37729863 37199940
               37350040 

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Page last modified: June 24, 2014
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