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Mesoscale Discussion 1139
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1139
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0118 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN IND...NRN KY...OH...FAR SE MI...WRN
   NY/PA...NRN WV

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 241818Z - 241915Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH
   THE AFTERNOON. SPORADIC INSTANCES OF GUSTY...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
   WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
   REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED AND UNORGANIZED. A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT
   THIS TIME BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN A MOIST AND
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF AN EWD ADVANCING SFC COLD FRONT
   AND UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EFFECTIVE 0-6 KM SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION
   REMAINS RATHER WEAK...WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW /25-30 KT/ IN THE
   VICINITY OF THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER CNTRL IND...NEWD ACROSS SE MI
   INTO WRN NY. ADDITIONALLY...POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE NOTED IN
   BOTH MORNING REGIONAL RAOBS AND 17Z RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WHILE
   LACK OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
   SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PW
   VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD
   RESULT IN ISOLATED STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH STRONGER
   STORMS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED MARGINAL/UNORGANIZED NATURE OF THE
   THREAT...A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME BUT TRENDS WILL BE
   MONITORED.

   ..LEITMAN/MEAD.. 06/24/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...DTX...
   LMK...IWX...IND...

   LAT...LON   40028621 41378482 42198376 42898202 43278039 43437909
               43367840 43157788 42867773 42547781 41977832 40917962
               39588098 38548255 37948390 37748486 37788593 38048658
               38648688 40028621 

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Page last modified: June 24, 2014
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