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Mesoscale Discussion 1140
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1140
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0206 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO INTO NERN NM

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 241906Z - 242100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THEY MOVE
   OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS LIKELY. A
   BRIEF TORNADO COULD OCCUR.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS NOW
   FORMING OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS. CONTINUED CONVERGENCE WITHIN
   THE SFC TROUGH AND HEATING WILL ALLOW STORMS TO SURVIVE ACROSS THE
   HIGH PLAINS. THIS REGION ALSO HAS RELATIVELY LONGER HODOGRAPHS OWING
   TO STRONG SLY SURFACE WINDS BENEATH NWLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
   FAVOR RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS
   AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.

   EVENTUALLY...THESE STORMS MIGHT MERGE WITH OTHER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
   ACROSS WRN KS...AFFECTING THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES LATER THIS
   EVENING WITH A WIND AND HAIL THREAT. THE THREAT IN THESE AREAS IS
   CONDITIONAL ON AIR MASS RECOVERY.

   ..JEWELL/MEAD.. 06/24/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   35400519 36480478 37370465 38600490 39080512 39530537
               39710527 39710483 39630435 39190284 38620217 37520194
               36640180 35980170 35110217 34740316 34700448 34850479
               35400519 

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Page last modified: June 24, 2014
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