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Mesoscale Discussion 1141
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1141
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0435 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL/NERN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 242135Z - 250000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THERE WILL EXIST A RISK FOR ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS INTO
   THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED...THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS CURRENTLY UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...MESOANALYSIS AT 21Z DEPICTS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEADING
   A FORWARD-PROPAGATING SMALL MCS EXTENDING FROM E OF SPS TO E OF SEP
   SWWD TO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. THIS BOUNDARY INTERSECTS A STATIONARY
   FRONT 20 ENE MWL THAT EXTENDS EWD THROUGH THE DFW METROPLEX AND EWD
   TO N OF SHV. ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER ISOLATED
   TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE MCS WHILE THE MCS ALSO
   MOVES EWD...AMIDST 2000-3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE PER MODIFICATIONS TO THE
   12Z FWD RAOB. THE GREATEST BUOYANCY IS FOUND NEAR AND S OF THE
   STATIONARY BOUNDARY...WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER
   90S AMID DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F ARE BEING MAINTAINED OUTSIDE OF
   CONVECTION.

   GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF BUOYANCY SUPPORTING INTENSE
   UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SVR WIND GUSTS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE...AIDED BY DCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1200 J/KG. THE GREATEST
   POTENTIAL FOR THIS ACTIVITY IS WHERE MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE IS
   ENHANCED INVOF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY -- INCLUDING THE DFW AREA --
   AND ACROSS WISE AND DENTON COUNTIES ALONG A NWD-SURGING OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY. WIND GUSTS OF 53 KT AND 52 KT HAVE BEEN REPORTED DURING
   THE PAST HOUR AT TYR AND GKY...RESPECTIVELY...WITH SIMILAR
   CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WITH AOB 20 KT OF FLOW WITHIN THE LOWEST 7 KM
   AGL SAMPLED BY THE FWS VWP...CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WILL LARGELY BE
   LIMITED. EVENTUAL NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL SUPPORT A DECREASE IN STORM
   INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   ..COHEN/EDWARDS.. 06/24/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...

   LAT...LON   33549748 33349566 32389467 31769500 31969729 32599791
               33549748 

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