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Mesoscale Discussion 1141
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1141
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0353 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CT/RI/MASS INTO NH/SOUTHERN MAINE

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 345...

   VALID 232053Z - 232230Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 345 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE RISK WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY SPREAD
   EASTWARD/INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF CT/RI/MASS INTO NH/SOUTHERN MAINE. THIS INCLUDES
   THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ASIDE FROM DAMAGING
   WINDS/HAIL. TORNADO WATCH 345 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z.

   DISCUSSION...A MIXED-MODE OF RELATIVELY FAST-MOVING
   STORMS...INCLUDING A COUPLE OF SPLITTING SUPERCELLS AND SUSTAINED
   LINEAR SEGMENTS...CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION AS THEY
   SPREAD GENERALLY EASTWARD ACROSS CT/MASS/RI AND THE HUDSON RIVER
   VALLEY AS OF 430 PM EDT/2030Z. THE AIR MASS NEAR/EAST OF A
   PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH...AND ALONG/SOUTH OF AN OUTFLOW-AIDED
   WARM FRONT ACROSS NH/EXTREME NORTHEAST MASS AND SOUTHWEST
   NH...CONTINUES TO STEADILY DESTABILIZE WITH 80S SURFACE TEMPERATURES
   AND NEAR 70 F SURFACE DEWPOINTS CONTRIBUTING TO AS MUCH AS 1500+
   J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. OVERALL SCENARIO WILL
   REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SOME SPLITTING SUPERCELLS AND FAST-MOVING LINE
   SEGMENTS AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP GENERALLY EASTWARD. WHILE
   LOW-LEVEL WINDS HAVE TENDED TO VEER...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST ABOVE
   THE SURFACE REMAIN QUITE STRONG WITH WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM BOSTON
   SUPPORTIVE OF NEARLY 200 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH. WHILE DAMAGING WINDS AND
   ISOLATED BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE MOST PREVALENT
   CONCERNS...A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARM
   SECTOR...AND PERHAPS ESPECIALLY ANY STORMS INTERACTING WITH
   AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW/WARM FRONTAL VICINITY WHERE SHEAR/VORTICITY
   IS MAXIMIZED.

   ..GUYER.. 06/23/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...

   LAT...LON   43797193 44057124 43187011 41447060 41277186 41517270
               42107301 43797193 

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Page last modified: June 23, 2015
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