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Mesoscale Discussion 1142
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1142
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0452 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL NY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 242152Z - 250015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS WILL CROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL NY INTO THE EVENING
   HOURS AND COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS...THOUGH WW
   ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER-DAY CLOUDS AND
   PRECIP...INSOLATION HAS SUPPORTED MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF
   CONVECTION THAT IS SPREADING ENEWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
   REGION. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS VERY LIMITED AMIDST AN ENVIRONMENT
   CHARACTERIZED BY LIMITED CAPPING AND HIGH PW -- E.G. AROUND 1.6-1.8
   INCHES PER GPS DATA. WITH A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE BELOW
   1.5 KM AGL SAMPLED BY THE BGM VWP AMIDST 25-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
   SHEAR...A FEW SUSTAINED...LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MAY
   BE MAINTAINED INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WATER LOADING MAY LOCALLY
   ENHANCE THE RISK FOR STRONG...PERHAPS LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS.
   HOWEVER...WITH POOR TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES...CONVECTION IS NOT
   FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY ROBUST AND SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER
   SUNSET.

   ..COHEN/EDWARDS.. 06/24/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

   LAT...LON   44437579 44517460 43547405 42607484 42147656 42447762
               43417685 44437579 

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